Thread by @Usherwood

Some thoughts on the possible scenarios for October #EUCO:

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This is prompted by my thread yesterday, where I considered whether Art.50 is at an impasse (spoiler: not yet)

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Some opening comments first: main point is that this is a first cut, so I welcome comments

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Here's the baseline, 'glidepath' scenario, ie what's ppl are working to:

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If that turns out to be a bit tricky, then we go to scenario 2. Think how Maastricht wasn't actually signed in Dec 91:

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Of course, problems might occur. Here we're talking still wanting a deal, but something big getting in the way:

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And then, just for completeness, let's look at someone/everyone walking away from this:

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Which all offers some conclusions:

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NB I've not got into ratification difficulties (maybe if you liked this I can try next week)

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Have I missed something here? Then tell me.

/end

@UKandEU @SurreyPolitics