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Thread by @Usherwood: "Some thoughts on the possible scenarios for October : 1/ This is prompted by my thread yesterday, where I considered whether Art.50 is […]" #EUCO

, 10 tweets, 3 min read
Some thoughts on the possible scenarios for October #EUCO:

1/
This is prompted by my thread yesterday, where I considered whether Art.50 is at an impasse (spoiler: not yet)



2/
Some opening comments first: main point is that this is a first cut, so I welcome comments

3/
Here's the baseline, 'glidepath' scenario, ie what's ppl are working to:

4/
If that turns out to be a bit tricky, then we go to scenario 2. Think how Maastricht wasn't actually signed in Dec 91:

5/
Of course, problems might occur. Here we're talking still wanting a deal, but something big getting in the way:

6/
And then, just for completeness, let's look at someone/everyone walking away from this:

7/
Which all offers some conclusions:

8/
NB I've not got into ratification difficulties (maybe if you liked this I can try next week)

9/
Have I missed something here? Then tell me.

/end

@UKandEU @SurreyPolitics
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