Progress on transition/ future partnership risks slipping from March to June EU Council amid Ireland impasse: my Sky Views: news.sky.com/story/sky-view…
In thread form:
1. very tough going in Ireland talks last week, essentially, zero movement because Option B from UK Gov has not materialised, and Mansion House was not a solution to Option A re Irish border. UKG obv reject option C draft legal text
1. very tough going in Ireland talks last week, essentially, zero movement because Option B from UK Gov has not materialised, and Mansion House was not a solution to Option A re Irish border. UKG obv reject option C draft legal text
2. Some in EU27 want to informally link lack of Ireland progress to UK-desired March progress on transition and future partnership in some way...
3. Tusk “Ireland comes first” speech in Dublin was less about freezing partnership talks right now, and more a rebuttal of UKG attempt to isolate the issue of Irish border into separate trilateral talks
4. But EU side of the negotiations identify that the political, business and economic need for a swift (ie this month) political deal or “common understanding” on transition is felt more on UK side
5. Ie basic need from business for contractual certainty about legal contracts signed by business from March 31st - which start to cover post Brexit system - will they be covered by EU law or not?
6. Some thought being given to now discussing Brexit, progress, transition, Ireland at June Summit, which was not the original plan, but not just because of Ireland - also a few outstanding transition issues
7. Eg fishing in transition - consulting but not attending the crucial December quota council. Governance and opt-ins on security and justice. Redress over applicability of new EU laws - not sorted a week before key Summit Sherpa meeting
8. not coming back with something concrete in March would leave three months of further uncertainty for PM against backdrop of Commons customs union votes and Local elections
9. Coming back with something concrete in March would require some flexibility in taking on “vassal state” concerns, or at least publishing some solutions on Ireland border - but eg Boris paper not official advice
10. the EU could be flexible too, over Ireland, and those transition issues, but have less incentive to fear consequences of a delay to June. March still “doable” “hopefully” but not the confident certainty suggested even a few days ago.
NB I correctly anticipated in August the delay in sufficient progress from October to December... this slightly different - March not the “priced in” certainty it seemed a few days ago, wont happen without movement. Movement anticipated, but not certain
