Thread by @daveambrose

thinking about podcast market size is exciting considering (1) terrestrial radio is a $20b ad budget market + (2) share shift data from @webby2001 begin to surface:

“AM/FM radio listened-to drops from 51% of all audio to just 26% for those who discovered podcasts.”

#RDE2018

kind of wild to frame this graph, via @nwquah’s newsletter: terrestrial radio has ~260m monthly listeners. BBC’s monthly listen count of their own podcasts is ~8% of total the radio audience but growing WAY faster.

i've been noodling on the podcasting space since early last year and one trend that's emerged: LOTs of audio sits not in a branded player but on a website. there's millions (!) of source files.

here's a good look at how fragmented audio sources exist medium.com/@GluedToTheScr…

Q: "how do podcast ads perform?"

A: "about 2.5x better ROI than other digital channels"

👀

https://twitter.com/maayanplaut/status/976842622189805568

“Given the economics of text are so lousy, and given how challenging it is to produce compelling video, the most lucrative vector for media companies is not a pivot to video but a pivot to podcasting.” - @eugenewei

further monetization opportunities for podcasts, not seen in other media models: live tapings.

data from @johnjurg: some shows selling upwards of 4k tickets, generating $25k in ticket sales. talent agencies (CAA + WME) now w. dedicated staff for hosts. wsj.com/articles/podca…

☝🏻 what's also interesting here is the profitability characteristics of these show formats (i.e. limited overhead) alongside the ability for podcasters to draw in new listeners outside of a digital channel

https://twitter.com/johnjurg/status/983372202698473472

“The most important trend here is obvious: YoY growth in new podcast listings is huge.” - @ChaddHollowed

based on Chad’s pull of net new podcast listings, 2018 is pacing to add ~160k new shows. 2018 would represent ~40% of total podcasts...ever 🚀

podtifex.com/most-podcasts-…

new shows: driving further fragmentation on how to consume. one of the reasons we’re seeing so many “app players” emerge to make listening/discovery easier.

how to monetize? an oldie but 🔥 resource from @ches_hall via @kadavy on how players drive 💵. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

this is an interesting and engaging use case from @LyndonFroese to transform an audio file into an interactive website - including transcripts, stop and start end points as well as rich media.

"podcasting" isn't just about audio.

timelinenotation.com

making podcast consumption easier as rich content and audio starts to get indexed in search👏🏻

developer overview: developers.google.com/search/docs/da…

emerging business models for podcasting from @andybowers. note that selling IP to Hollywood is one that’s becoming more of the norm and fastest growing ways “breakout” creators are monetizing today.

another form of monetization is selling merchandise found in a show’s IP to listeners for a more “immersive” experience. example from @NVPresents selling shirts, mugs, stickers via @topatoco topatoco.com/collections/wt…

.@sarahvm: “the best way to acquire listeners for a new podcast is to have another show host tell their audience to listen. at WNYC, we couldn’t get radio listeners to convert to podcast listeners.”

this is a graph of the term "podcasting" mentioned in public company earnings, research or reports since 2012. what I ❤️ about this view is that this is most likely a lagging indicator of the growth of the category (happening right now) once larger companies "discover" it.

an online movie and TV show aggregator (as well as content producer) now has a podcast to cover what goes into television production

the cross-pollination of media formats in this one screenshot is fascinating, i.e. will audio show recs begin to occur on your video screen?

“Therefore, I think podcast ads won’t really hit full “product market fit” until brand advertising becomes fully viable. At that point, I wouldn’t be surprised if growth accelerates.” - @nbashaw

https://twitter.com/nbashaw/status/1006282167767486465?s=21

this is also an interesting graph from @pkafka. the dozens of conversations I’ve now had w. other investors and operators in this space ask one question about TAM (which I think is wrong): “how does podcasting take share from the $17b radio ad market?”

https://twitter.com/recode/status/1006196950549651456?s=21

the reason this is a wrong way to look at podcasting TAM is that an investor assumes radio advertising shifts from one (terrestrial) to another (digital)

however - w. data via 50+ early to late co.s - we’re seeing ad dollars shift from social platforms + TV to audio MUCH faster

maybe this shift is a moment-in-time + presents an opportunity for arbitrage (why podcast ads have been so heavily weighted toward DR to date)

but when brand dollars - per @nbashaw’s comment above - move into where consumers are spending outsized time, TAM expansion starts

new funding models for emerging podcast creators outside of "advertising":

1. guaranteed, ongoing royalties, i.e. wsj.com/articles/with-…
2. "training accelerators", i.e. @wamu885's "Pod Shop" wamu.org/podshop/
3. "originals" scripted shows, i.e. londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/…

one of the most interesting aspects of this crowdfunding campaign for @RadioPublic is that fact that podcasters are not only eligible to invest but also receive better terms: “verified podcasters who invest get a 20% discount in their CrowdSafe”

https://twitter.com/jakeshapiro/status/1009852144785285121?s=21

the investment return profiles of independent movies is just totally incredible for all parties involved, esp. the creators who take a chance on the script.

posit: could we see relative ratios in the world of podcasting?

source: filmonomics.slated.com/the-benefits-o…

this NYT piece on a collection of podcasters, ie @joerogan and @tferriss, highlight what’s interesting about the medium, aptly described by a commenter of the article: incredible intimacy and connection to the storyteller

https://twitter.com/mollyworthen/status/1025374160099463168?s=21

.@prx + @pri (national distributors of public radio) merging in a bid to create one of the largest podcast “juggernauts” for content/technology

stats of the combined entity:

- 28.5m monthly users
- 56m monthly podcast downloads
- $38m in FY 2018 revenue

wsj.com/articles/publi…

“With podcasts, you get to tell your own story. So many people [in the media] want to tell it for you, but podcasts give you control.” - @FSKPart3 of @barstoolsports re. the rise of athletes and celebrities joining the audio medium ozy.com/the-huddle/the…

in our research, we've seen a pronounced bifurcation btw. media companies who want to launch a podcasting arm and podcasting companies who want to become IP models. it is subtle but the latter are growing very sound businesses very quickly.

https://twitter.com/felixsalmon/status/1042446482169884672

.@mathewi on the "podcasting bubble": hard to monetize, hard to discover and hard to measure cjr.org/the_new_gateke…

.@roseveleth's excellent thread on podcast measurement challenges, esp. for companies who "live and die" on content analytics

https://twitter.com/roseveleth/status/1042449918915272704

"There are technical barriers. It’s a LOT easier to use Netflix, Hulu, or a DVR than it is to find, download, & listen to a podcast. And you can see how some people just don’t want to deal with the hassle." via @ZackRW prpd.org/resources/goog…

some of the most interesting and thought-provoking discussions have been around Garry's first point over the last 12 months - from creators, talent agencies, investors (private + public) and founders building in this space

https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1054754362319298561

.@epeckham w. a thorough podcast market overview. interestingly, I had dinner w. 10+ editors of leading media co.'s recently where similar themes to Eric's were analyzed:

1. content exclusivity
2. derivative IP rights
3. blockers re. audience development

techcrunch.com/2018/10/25/wha…

looking forward to giving this new (meta) pod a listen from the team at @ChartableDotCom, covering the ins and out of what’s happening in this industry right now 👇🏻

https://twitter.com/dzohrob/status/1067112929378648064?s=21

useful advertiser tracking tool, indexing the top 200 podcasts during a rolling six month window called @podsights launching today. 31k ads have been indexed across 1.7k advertisers during this period.

I particularly like the way @pmarca frames how audio can be viewed as a toy (because it’s simple) but it’s deceptively powerful. As he says: “it’s a voice in your ear any time you want” techcrunch.com/2019/01/05/mar…

“More than 25% of the podcasts I looked at published their earliest episode in 2018, making it the biggest year for podcast launches in history.” - @misener link.medium.com/OtuZGD1XuT

good post on how the @ringer monetizes by @BenMullin, which highlights the profitability of original, “binge worthy” content alongside a collection (i.e. a “network”) of various shows to cross promote

also: 3rd party ad sales team takes 33% rake ⁉️👀

https://twitter.com/benmullin/status/1089847532967157761?s=21

great for listening platforms (more content), great for “rails” tools (need for hosting), great for talent scouting (more IP opportunities)

biggest downside are for creators who want to break through noise + need resources to go from hobby to FT role

https://twitter.com/trengriffin/status/1091732474734862336?s=21

the headline is provocative, "podcast events are making a killing" but what's interesting is that the ASP (average sale price) per a live ticket is much higher than I expected.

$60 to $120 for a live showing of your fave pod > movie, some sporting tix

axios.com/podcast-events…

@sarafischer lots of eye-catching stories in the news lately re. "rise" of podcasting in the last year, but that is disingenuous.

a polarizing thread in terms of creators early in the medium who have created success. @amahnke's comment re. this Variety piece is 👏🏻.

https://twitter.com/amahnke/status/1163816455432916992?s=20

one of the first reports outlining math + unit economics of a podcast, via BoA ML research:

revenue drivers (1st image)
+ ads (downloads, ad spots, sellout %, commissions)
+ subscriptions
+ live
+ merchandising
+ IP

cost drivers (2nd image)
+ employees
+ hosting
+ marketing