Thread by @nicktolhurst

1/ Very small thread on why #Brexit is actualy leading to the end of the UK or atleast the UK of the post war period as we understand it & its much, much more than *just* Irish & the Scots. Its as much about the English and its polity......

2/ Firstly tho Irish unification & Scottish independence - the 1st is likely to be accelerated once the inevitable demographic reality tips in (around 2030). Scottish Indy less predictable but in any case #Brexit vote confirmed a break - one that's even riven the Scottish Tories.

3/ What many dont get is that #Brexit will findamentally change "restUK" too. After UKs decline in 70s, EU membership enabled UK to be a big hitter - an atlanticist well armed, UN Sec Council member "big beast" inside a "global player" european trade bloc. This will change....

4/ While UK remains a defence big player its recent decline relative to US, China & others coupled with the strain on budgets #Brexit has already bought means that it has no other option but to work with others - mainly Europeans...but outside of EU.....

5/ In EU, UK used security as compiment to its economic power. Out of UK has to use it to make up up for its loss of institutional power & the umbrella EU membership afford its. Think how EU reacted when Argentina threatened UK over Falklands. UK has lost Int institutional clout.

6/ UK power to steer EU mkt regulations is now evaporating & in financial services - where UK is strongest - it is now experiencing a chipping away of its advantages by EU partners keen to exploit #Brexit

But perhaps worst of all is the psycological affect...not the economic...

7& Even if #Brexit "somehow works" it will require years of painful recreation of trade agreements, business & agencies - costing time, money & resources. - to get largely where we are now.

As this becomes clear, disapointment will set in & it will set in with (all) the parties.

8/ Again this is a "good scenario" - a disapointed populace will question why the main parties brought UK to point that it has less power & influence, that its not richer & they'll be constant efforts to hide UKs lack of clout internationally

It will resemble the 70s ironically

9/ Life will be OK - but we wont be richer than Germans or the Dutch & when the PM or Ministers are at global conferences they wont be at the front like they were 80s-2010s.

Nothing wrong with that - but it wont be the "Global Britain" of #Brexit dreams.

10/ Real important thing tho is what happens to English society. Shorn of its leading place globally, also of NIre (& perhaps Scotland) #Brexit is likely to make UK even more unequal as EU industry jobs drift away & London prospers.

This will be real key to any brexit success...

11/ Those young <40 #Brexit voters seduced by "Global Britain" dreams, struggling on low incomes, seeing a "smaller" UK disenchanted with the parties that brought them there...where will they turn?

Perhaps to Europe, but perhaps that will be too painful & another option sought..

12/ Either extreme left or right wld make matters worse but in any case the centre looks like it wont hold. Politicians (mostly) arent dumb, they know this. Thats why when you see someone like Rees-Mogg talking to Bannon, playing around with issues unheard of just a deacade ago..

13/ Mogg knows what he's doing. He's sussed that the "post war era" is over.

Its post #brexit England now. It craves nostalgia, superiority but strength to overcome the inevitable disapointment brexit has already brought & will bring...the only real question remaining is this...

14/ .......What will the "inheritors of #Brexit" such as Mogg do with the power that England will give them.....to combat the inevitable & impossible to hide decline that brexit brings...?

/Ends...