Five years ago, I attended a briefing by an Israel intelligence officer. Everything he said is still correct. Thread.
Assad will never step down. To remove him he will have to be killed.
Syria will use its military and every asset including chemical weapons to keep Assad in power.
Russia will stand by its client state Syria in exchange for Mediterranean port rights and a land crossing to southwest Asia.
Israel will do nothing proactive. Only defend its interests and interdict weapons transfers to terrorists and Hizbollah.
The current situation only helps Russia and Iran. The US is relatively weak in influencing events unless we commit long term to the area.
As long as the US is stuck in Afghanistan and fighting ISIS, we can’t commit to Syria.
Therefore, last night’s strikes (in light of 5 years ago) make no difference other than flexing our muscles and moral preening.
