Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. First, there’s no actual evidence that Trumpian belligerence led to this, only a strong desire of Trump defenders to claim a ‘win.’ Yes, it might be the reason,but we don’t know, so let’s stop saying this as if it’s self-evidently true. It’s not. Second,we /1
did actually make a concession: POTUS agreed to meet the world’s worst human rights abuser in exchange for nothing, which experts in this area counseled against fir decades. Let’s all cringe at the coming photos of the leader of the free world yukking it up w/ an orwelian /2
gangster. Third, US pressure is filtered through China through which NK’s trade and finance flow. So if Trump pressure worked, then be sure to thank China a lot. (Trump does deserve credit for pushing China a lot on NK.) Fourth, US analysts,& politicians especially, constantly /3
overrate how much others’ choices are driven by what we do. Our hegemony goes to our head. NK has a long record of doing whatever the hell it wants regardless of global opinion, so our default position should be that NK does what it does for internal reasons firstly. Not that /4
it ignores international opinion, just that we should be cautious about ascribing foreign causation to an opaque regime we don’t understand well. So my sense is that Kim is bargaining primarily because he had the ability to nuke CONUS, so he can approach us from a position of /5
strength. Now that nuclear deterrence with the US is assured - ie, now that the US will never launch an Iraq-style regime change war against NK, bc we don’t want them to nuke the US homeland in retaliation - they are safe to come and look for a deal. Basically, they’re going /6
shopping. So they’ll talk to anyone now - Moon, Trump, Abe, Xi, Putin, even the IOC. Why not? See what you can get for it. How can they cash out this hugely awesome capability? Naturally Trump thinks this about him, but it’s not. Kim’s meeting with everyone now. And if no deal /7
is forthcoming, then they just return to their defensive crouch and wait for the storm to blow over and everyone adjusts to a NK with nuclear weapons. We adjusted to Cultural Revolution China with nukes. We adjusted to Pakistan with nukes. Remember how everyone freaked out /8
when Pakistan got nukes? A weak state wracked by Islamic fundamentalism? Despite the dire predictions, nothing happened, and in time everyone got exhausted and just gave up and adapted. I’d bet that’s NK’s model for the future: get a sweet deal or dig in and hold till the rest /9
of us tire, get bored, get distractedt e, get bewitchedi by the latest Trump scandal, and gradually gets accepted as a de facto nuclear state. Yes, it will take longer, bc it’s NK, which is uniquely scary, but I’d guess we’ll adapt. END
ADDENDUM: Some readers have brought up that SoKo's ForMin credited Trump for bring NoKo to the table: edition.cnn.com/2018/04/26/wor…. Ok. Perhaps. It's possible. But she doesn't really know either. A far more obvious explanation is that she is flattering Trump. Diplomats and leaders /a
around the world have learned pretty quickly that the best way to keep on Trump's good side and avoid tariffs and US harping, is to flatter the president. Look at Abe. He's a master at that. The South Koreans were terrified last year that Trump was going to start a war. If /b
flattering this affirmation-craving president is a way to avoid a national catastrophe that is good politics. END
