Thread by @Usherwood

Let's work through why Cabinet/CON are fighting over which of two plans that EU rejects is happening:

1/

Both Customs Partnership (CP) and Maximum Facilitation (MF) have been rejected so far by EU as underdeveloped and probably unviable. So why persist?

2/

Different levels at work here, so let's try to unpack them

3/

First point is that I'm going to reject ignorance of EU position as an option: it's been said enough and those involved know enough that this explanation doesn't fly

4/

Secondly, it reflects v.different views of UK's future relationship (@tconnellyRTE piece was excellent on this: rte.ie/news/2018/0505…)

5/

MF means being out of Customs Union, but trying to keep barriers to a minimum, while CP is being aligned to CU and keeping v.close

'Win' this battle and you get to set a tone

6/

Importantly, many in UK see CP/MF paths as viable, but needing some more time to work up (although neither is being, right now). For CP, that points to staying in a CU until then, while MF points to leaving, then working to drop barriers

7/

But CP/MF is also symbolically important, as CON think about post-Mar 2019/post-May period. Need to lay markers down now, to show how they would have done things differently

8/

As someone here pointed out, Brexit will never fail, just never be implemented correctly. So need to get in early to shape that narrative

9/

At another level, CP/MF matters because it'll be taken into Art.50 process. Even if not viable, it sets boundary for negotiation, so matters for feedback into rest of process

10/

Most obvious element here is Irish dimension: choice on CP/MF affects options for borders. For those CONs feeling IE is getting to shape too much, so this is way to run up new interference

11/

As of last week, CP/MF also is means to cement changing balance in Cabinet, w loss of Rudd. Working on May to toughen position will continue right through to Mar 19

12/

But, finally, a caveat.

If triggers were going to be pulled, then they would have been. From ERG, from Johnson et al

13/

That they haven't been suggests that current situation suits everyone:
- get a deal
- remove May
- complain about May
- work out a plan for UK-EU relations later

14/

In sum, EU is waiting for Godot

/end