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1. One hears some strong reactions to the move of the US embassy to Jerusalem: "It's the death of peace!" "It marks Israel's ultimate victory over the Palestinians!" "It justifies Palestinian intransigence!" None of these is true. Let's bust some myths.
1. One hears some strong reactions to the move of the US embassy to Jerusalem: "It's the death of peace!" "It marks Israel's ultimate victory over the Palestinians!" "It justifies Palestinian intransigence!" None of these is true. Let's bust some myths.
2. Advocates for 2 states see the embassy move as the death knell of prospects for peace. But the sky is not falling. A US embassy in West Jerusalem is correct and reasonable. It has always been Israel's capital and would remain Israeli territory in any plausible 2 state map.
3. Our embassy's presence in Jerusalem also reinforces the legitimacy of historic Jewish ties to the city, which are too often denied by Palestinians as part of a broader denial of Israel's right to exist.
4. Nothing about the embassy's location prevents the emergence of a shared city with 2 capitals, a necessary part of a 2 state solution. Inadvertently or not, Trump has opened the door for much more frank discussion about an eventual Pal capital & US Emb to Palestine in E J'lem.
5. Long a taboo in Israeli & US politics, the ice is beginning to break. WH officials reportedly told Israeli DefMin Lieberman last month that Trump's emerging peace plan will call for transferring 4 Arab neighborhoods of E. Jerusalem to the Palestinian Authority. That's a start.
6. Precise boundaries would only emerge from negotiations, &Israel will need to remain connected to key holy sites. Those talks won't happen in present circumstances, but we should openly discuss this necessary aspect of a 2state solution, preparing for Is/Pal leadership changes.
7. Meanwhile, triumphalists in Israel & US suggest the embassy move means Israel has "won" the conflict. But such declarations are premature. Yes, Israel is stronger than ever, its legitimacy more recognized, & closer with many Arab states than ever before. All welcome. But...
8. But however good that feels, the inexorable demographic dilemmas of how Israel can maintain both its Jewish and its democratic character while controlling all of the West Bank and its Palestinian population have not changed at all.
9. Some are deluded that these hard decisions can be avoided. But they can't. Eventually, a future Israeli gov't will have to make some wrenching choices. Ongoing expansion of settlements outside of blocs that could be accommodated in land swaps only makes those choices harder.
10. Even a forward-leaning Saudi Crown Prince like MBS acknowledges that the Saudis cannot normalize relations with Israel absent real progress toward 2 states. If the conflict festers, Israel could squander a real opportunity for full integration into the region.
11. So Israel's own interests still require finding a path to end the conflict in two states, or at least to keep that prospect alive for when Palestinians are ready to make the decisions they will need to. That's a US interest, too.
12. Some Palestinians insist they can increase Israel's isolation by demanding one-person, one-vote and screaming "apartheid". But this is not a winning strategy.
13. Palestinian can hold out and refuse to tell hard trust to their own people about the legitimacy of a Jewish state, Israel's permanence, and the immorality of violence, but their ability to generate pressure on Israel is declining.
14. Refusal to negotiate (or even meet US officials) will bring neither 1 state with full citizenship for WB Pals, nor relief for those suffering in Gaza under Hamas rule, nor crushing pressure on Israel. Rather, it will mean a slow, grinding perpetuation of the status quo-minus.
15. Palestinians need new leadership, especially after Abbas disgraced and disqualified himself with vile anti-Semitic canards. His successors must address the Israeli public's legitimate anxieties about Palestinian intentions.
16. Otherwise, Palestinians will continue to languish, the world will shrug its shoulders, turn away from a hopeless cause, and continue to do hi-tech deals with Israel.
17. The US embassy belongs in Israel. I can celebrate this overdue step today, even while also believing Trump should have wrapped it in the broader context of two states with two capitals in a shared city. That will come, if not in this Administration, then in the next.
18. But tomorrow, surprisingly little about this conflict will have changed. The current Israel and Palestinian leaders may be unable to act to pull out of their stalemate, but reality will find a way of forcing their successors to confront their illusions. End.
Correction: In 17., it should have read: “The US Embassy belongs in Jerusalem.”
Further correction: In 13., it should read “hard truths”, not “hard trust”.
