Today, @RockyMtnInst released a new study on the economics of "clean energy portfolios" versus new gas plants. We find that gas loses, and it's a $350 billion and 10 GT CO2 prize for customers, investors, and the planet. Read on for more: 1/ rmi.org/insights/repor…
First, the situation: about half of the thermal capacity on the US grid is likely to retire by 2030. That represents a ~480 GW investment need for new capacity to replace it - and the default choice is new gas-fired capacity, which would cost ~$500B through 2030. 2/ 
Actually running those new CCGTs and CTs would cost another $400-500B, and emit 16 GT of CO2 through plant lifetimes. 3/
Luckily, the pace of innovation in renewable and distributed energy resources means that "clean energy portfolios" of these technologies can provide the same services as new gas plants, with zero carbon emissions. 4/
Our study looks at the relative economics of clean energy portfolios vs new gas across four case studies among the $100 B of currently-announced gas plants, including two CCGTs and two CTs in a wide range of geographies. 5/
We found that, in each case, clean energy portfolios are cost-competitive with the proposed gas plant, saving up to 60% of net present costs. In one challenging case (Florida CCGT), the gas plant is ~6% cheaper; otherwise gas is always more expensive. 6/
New gas is also riskier. Renewable energy and battery costs are falling fast enough that clean energy portfolio could outcompete CCGTs on OpEx alone, stranding gas projects by 2025-2040 depending on gas price. 7/
This fundamental shift in the economics of clean energy vs. natural gas-fired generation could represent a $350B NPV opportunity for investors in clean energy (while providing net customer savings) and avoid 10 billion tons of CO2 emissions 8/
Utilities, regulators, clean energy project developers, and market operators all have a role to play in enabling this opportunity. But we only get one shot - if we build GW of new gas despite the economics, we'll be digging out of a cost and carbon hole for generations. 9/9
