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Jim Grace @mac_puck
, 8 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
@Jim_Cornelius @EmporersNewC @IanDunt @J_amesp

1/ Will brexit mean we run out of gas and electricty?
Have a look at clause 38 of REGULATION (EU) 2017/1938 "measures to safeguard the security of gas supply and repealing Regulation (EU) No 994/2010"
eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
Con..
2/ IANAL, but I think this is saying that if Netherlands, say, has an emergency gas shortage and asks for solidarity measures, then other countries in the EEA (Norway, say) have to prioritise gas supplies to their fellow EEA member above supplies to a "3rd country".
Cont..
3/ On March 1st 2018, a combination of "the beast from the east", Dutch gas production problems and HMG's criminally incompetent decision to let Centrica close the UK's only large gas storage facility meant gas reserves dropped to from 35 days to 5
independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-n…
Cont..
4/ After B-day, the UK will be very much at the back of the queue during periods of regional gas shortage - could be freak cold weather, industrial problems, or Putin resting his deckchair on a pipeline... but WE become the "non-essential load". First to be sacrificed.
Cont...
5/ Companies in Northern Europe might even take the view that they need not store so much gas themselves as they can always shed the UK load if needed (storing gas ties up capital).
The problem is not just heating and cooking; natural gas is our largest Electricity source.
Cont.
6/ Brexit could mean regular power and heating cuts for the UK (whenever Putin feels like it), but not like a regular power cut ( 1000's of homes for several hours ), rather the whole country for days or weeks. (N.B. Standby generators typically have a 3hr tank not 3 wk.)
Cont...
7. In very little time we could be looking at:
Food rotting in fridges.
Medicines spoiling.
Mains water and sewerage pumps stopping.
East Anglia and Lincolnshire flooding (our best farmland).
Internet and telecoms collapsing.
The economy imploding.

THANK YOU BREXIT.

End
P.S. Looks like Norway have signed up to it :-(

reuters.com/article/us-nor…
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More from @mac_puck see all

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@hamster_hami @VeuveK @jeremythomas212 @tolethorpe @Roblev0 @devonlass @The_Leaver @jon_mumford1982 @brianbloop @NickStevenson63 @Davidmetroland @ShlomoIndiana @srcoxlive @sunick51 @xtremedoda @JohnRod76512584 @alex_e_king @GentlemanGeorge @Ciolfilicious1 @David_Vaporium @Kitchy65 @blueunicornmoon @JTillx @nicko00127 @subjecttochance @flummixed07 @HarrietSmart @MarkInNorthWest @UKEDNurse @SciriusUK @jetjag100 @scirius22 @PostTruthPaul @IanTayl23605350 @Andywilds1 @MartinRemains @brexit_politics @EmilTschepp @f505eb72b9cd493 @MagriTiger @JohnSydenham @fccologne4eva @JRMCopeland @petuniasforever @Jim_Cornelius @LapisLazuli4402 @ticketsjaved @susanstanwix @PJA1066 @commer2stroke 1/Unfortunately, when you look at the detail they just can NOT be rolled over - it would be like cut and pasting someone else's will to save on lawyers' fees. Different deceased, different executor, different estate, different beneficiaries - just "no worky I'm afraid"
Cont..
@hamster_hami @VeuveK @jeremythomas212 @tolethorpe @Roblev0 @devonlass @The_Leaver @jon_mumford1982 @brianbloop @NickStevenson63 @Davidmetroland @ShlomoIndiana @srcoxlive @sunick51 @xtremedoda @JohnRod76512584 @alex_e_king @GentlemanGeorge @Ciolfilicious1 @David_Vaporium @Kitchy65 @blueunicornmoon @JTillx @nicko00127 @subjecttochance @flummixed07 @HarrietSmart @MarkInNorthWest @UKEDNurse @SciriusUK @jetjag100 @scirius22 @PostTruthPaul @IanTayl23605350 @Andywilds1 @MartinRemains @brexit_politics @EmilTschepp @f505eb72b9cd493 @MagriTiger @JohnSydenham @fccologne4eva @JRMCopeland @petuniasforever @Jim_Cornelius @LapisLazuli4402 @ticketsjaved @susanstanwix @PJA1066 @commer2stroke 2/ for example: Rules of origin.
An existing FTA might state a minimum domestic content threshold eg: "55% of this product must be sourced EU". It might not be POSSIBLE to source 55% in the UK - so we have just shot ourselves in the foot, big time.
Cont...
@hamster_hami @VeuveK @jeremythomas212 @tolethorpe @Roblev0 @devonlass @The_Leaver @jon_mumford1982 @brianbloop @NickStevenson63 @Davidmetroland @ShlomoIndiana @srcoxlive @sunick51 @xtremedoda @JohnRod76512584 @alex_e_king @GentlemanGeorge @Ciolfilicious1 @David_Vaporium @Kitchy65 @blueunicornmoon @JTillx @nicko00127 @subjecttochance @flummixed07 @HarrietSmart @MarkInNorthWest @UKEDNurse @SciriusUK @jetjag100 @scirius22 @PostTruthPaul @IanTayl23605350 @Andywilds1 @MartinRemains @brexit_politics @EmilTschepp @f505eb72b9cd493 @MagriTiger @JohnSydenham @fccologne4eva @JRMCopeland @petuniasforever @Jim_Cornelius @LapisLazuli4402 @ticketsjaved @susanstanwix @PJA1066 @commer2stroke 3/ Some FTA's require adherence to the EU's regulatory and customs regime.
Either we keep it the same (EU regs) and prevent ourselves from de-regulating (a la brexit), or we change the phrase to "UK regs" and get the response "you're 'avin a f**kin laugh, mate!)
Cont...
Read 8 tweets
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@ChicoMarxBros @andrew_lilico Importing is not the problem (other than Calais gridlocked with UK trucks trying and failing to enter the EU). We can always waive essential imports through and sod the WTO rules...it beats starving.

But virtually all our exports will stop overnight.

Cont...
@ChicoMarxBros @andrew_lilico By "virtually all" I mean
- The 50% that go to the EU, Switzerland and Norway via the Internal Market, based upon EU product and exporter approvals.
- The 15% that go to 3rd countries with EU trade agreements, whose acceptance of our goods is based on their EU certs.
Cont...
@ChicoMarxBros @andrew_lilico ...Much of the 15% we export to the USA. (Although there is no over-arching trade deal between the US and EU, much of our trade depends upon over 40 sectoral deals covering air-craft and parts, foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, customs procedures etc which lapse on 29 Mar)
Read 3 tweets
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@J_amesp 1. Problem is most people think "no deal" is no biggie; "a few tariffs and a bit more paperwork at the border, blah, blah, China and USA trade with the EU on WTO terms blah, blah..."

China and USA have regulatory agencies recognised by the EU.
ON 30/03/19 WE WILL NOT!!
Cont...
@J_amesp 2. The "big" agencies are:
EASA - approvals for; airport operators, aitrlines, pilot licences, maintenance engineers, airplanes and aerospace components. After B-day NO international flights & no aerospace exports ANYWHERE.
ECA (implementing REACH) - no chemical industry.
cont..
@J_amesp 3. EMA - NO medicines exports, or medical equipment
Euratom - NO international transport of radioactive materials.
50-odd smaller agencies relating to dozens of industries and millions of jobs.

Cont...
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
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#Brexit: martedì potrebbe iniziare l'uscita di Uk senza accordo.

Tutti i governi Ue si stanno preparando con avvertimenti a cittadini, amministrazioni, imprese. Alcuni assumono migliaia di persone per le dogane.

Forse mi son perso qualcosa. Ma il governo italiano che fa?
Facciamo un esempio: in Italia risiedono 28.168 cittadini britannici.

Dopo la Brexit diventeranno extra-comunitari. Cosa ne facciamo in caso di no-deal? Tutti espulsi con foglio di via il 30 marzo?

Oppure li facciamo votare alle elezioni comunali come ora?
Un alto esempio banalotto: l'Italia esporta 760 milioni di euro di vino, di cui 300 milioni di prosecco.

In caso di no-deal servono doganieri per le pratiche di esportazione. E chi glielo dice ai trevigiani che devono prendersi un broker a Dover per sdoganare?
Read 10 tweets
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#brexit 33
Germany earned €2.9 billion from Greece’s debt crisis, their supposed equal members

@EURACTIV euractiv.com/section/econom…
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Multinationals avoid the total cost2UK of Freedom of Movement & Freedom of Establishment is about £40 Bn/YEAR. The effect on UK public finances is 2drain the resources available 4 OUR pensions & benefits in the future. Get ready 2work until you drop!
globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl…£30bn-cost-of-EU-migration-FINAL.pdf
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
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#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
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Read 28 tweets
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#Brexit as a concept is increasingly drifting from having anything whatsoever to do with the mechanics of leaving the EU. It is now primarily a culture war and both sides will totally ignore the details except for when they are temporarily convenient.
The consequence of this is that our future relationship with the EU will be just as readily ignored as our activities as a member. They said Brexit would make us isolated, self absorbed and insular but it seems that was always the case and there are no signs of that changing.
As ever the details will be delegated to officials and civil servants while our establishment politics drifts further into its cycle of decline, unable to usefully influence external events making us entirely passive and reactive to events rather than self-interestedly engaged.
Read 17 tweets

Trending hashtags

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