Thread by @Usherwood

Let's consider the incentive structure for Cabinet hard-Brexiters today:

1/

Basic options boil down to the classic Hirschman trio of Exit, Voice and Loyalty

2/

So they can walk (literally, it seems), they can stay and try to change the tabled plan, or they can go along with it

3/

Given the substantive gap between what they want and what they see, the loyalty option looks least likely to occur, at least in sense of meekly accepting

4/

Their number gives them weight to reshape, through voice, but that also incentivises not leaving, because then they're all weakened

5/

Indeed, if they hang together, then harder for May to sack them all, as would make selling of any deal impossible to CON backbench

6/

So, voice looks like best option right now.

However...

7/

Voice comes in different flavours here

Importantly, distinction btw noises off and meaningful changes to policy

8/

Failure to agree position today means summer is lost in Art.50 and chances of no-deal increase very substantially.

So hard Brexiters have to make another calculation

9/

Do they crash the Art.50 bus, with the uncertainties/potential that brings, or do they buy into an imperfect deal to get them over line of withdrawal and into situation they can mould later on?

10/

Main impression so far has been that latter is preferred by most hard-Brexiters in Cab: enough worry about no-deal chaos to merit going for longer-term opportunities

11/

In addition, May is a useful scapegoat, so why allow her to ship blame elsewhere, when she'll secure withdrawal and leave door open for negotiation of actual future relationship?

12/

Taken together, some reason to think the bus won't get crashed today (although next week's White Paper might prove difficult)

/end