Thread by @Usherwood

Right. Let's try to pull together the last 24 hours in Brexit:

1/

Obviously, Trump's comments have rather overshadowed everything else, but that's not the most important thing in the longer run

2/

The White Paper was notable for three basic features

3/

Firstly, it didn't give any ground from Chequers, either harder or softer.

In part that was a punt from the 'I dare you to challenge it' school, in part a reflection of pragmatic acceptance of need to move Art.50 on

4/

Secondly, it was done in full knowledge that COM/EU27 will have problems with it.

Again, a degree of 'this is what we've got, so bite us'

5/

Thirdly, it did reaffirm some basic commitments to the process, not least the backstop and the need for no border

6/

The domestic response was much as expected.

ERG don't like it
Opposition point to confusion
Experts point to issues

7/

However, no more Cabinet resignations, so May might feel reasonably secure on that front

Plus, media got diverted on to Trumpian aspects

8/

With that in mind, things were probably fine to get to Monday

9/

And then the Trump curveball

10/

Even 12hrs on, the best spin I cld put on it is that it'll endear May to soft Brexiters/Left a bit more, on the 'enemy of my enemy...' basis

But that wasn't the source of May's difficulties

11/

It provides a very strong prop for hard Brexiters' agenda, almost regardless of whether Trump doubles-down on his comments again

12/

Importantly, this isn't about substance, but image. Key feature of entire Brexit saga to date has been selective reading of evidence to support one's existing view

13/

In particular, if you think Trump to be biddable, then that might like easier option than cold, inflexible, bureaucratic EU

14/

I'll note in passing the crappy gender politics of the thing, with the slating of May's ability to take advice from someone (male) who knows better

15/

More pressing issue for May is that she's tied up with Trump all day, so can't go fire-fighting back in London

16/

In any case, all this distracts from the more substantial Q of what will the EU do.

Various holding statements y'day, but also much briefing about unhappiness

17/

Probably will see more holding of tongues over w/e, in case UK position degrades substantially, while also working out how to drag the viable bits into the formal negotiations

18/

In that sense alone, UK is right that ball is now in EU's court. However, to expect any 'concessions' is pie in the sky right now

19/

A final personal thought: by articulating an end-state to future relationship, UK has left door wide open for longer transitional arrangements on current terms (or close). That seems to have been missed so far, so curious to see if remains so

20/

In sum: some steps forward, some back. But no clear how many of each.

/end