Thread by @Usherwood

Well aware that it's not actually over, let's try to pick up the pieces of this week on Brexit:

1/

Personally, the big take-home is that UK gvt is still fundamentally locked into domestic crisis management

2/

From HoC votes, to pitch on White Paper, to May's speech today: all of it only makes sense when looked at through the prism of CON divisions and tight HoC situation

3/

This is completely understandable, but means that opportunity to push on Art.50 with EU is fading

4/

Today's Art.50 GAC is likely to be polite but will underline centrality of Irish Dimension in negotiations right now

5/

The oddity of it all is that May is talking about future of Irish dimension, while EU is talking as much about getting to that future, so negotiating space does exist

6/

Part of reason for speaking past each other is that domestic situation, so maybe May hopes things will calm over summer and then moves can be made

7/

However, the Belfast speech doesn't really help that, since it puts it all on to EU, when actually both sides need to work together to solve the problem

8/

At same time, May didn't blow it all up, so show stays on the road for now.

9/

This leads to the final point: there's a lot more pessimism around this week, esp on no-deal outcome

10/

In part that's because of COM guidance, and HMG trailling of guidance to come over summer, but also it reflects the extremely fraught progress

11/

Those of you who follow my monthly updates will know I've been on this for some time now, but it was evident that less time wld mean more anxiety

12/

Some of that anxiety is being used instrumentally to prod things along, but much of it is sincere worry that by accident (more than on purpose) this process will fall over

13/

So the real Q of this week is whether and how that anxiety is turned into productive action.

I'll close by suggesting that such action requires looking up from one's local challenges

/end