Thread by @Helenreflects

People enthusiastically share this article, but I am genuinely curious about what it means. Obviously, the UK doesn't look like it's going to rescind Art 50. But it might be an interesting exercise to think through what would happen if they did
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi… 1/

First things first. This isn't an official EU position. It's France. One of the member states. "Britain could still cancel Brexit and stay in the European Union on the same terms it currently enjoys, the French government has said." - what about the other member states? 2/

It's still legally unclear, as the article also says, whether Art 50 can be unilaterally revoked. If it can't, what if some country wanted to use a veto? Also, the EU will likely want some guarantees such as no referenda on EU membership in the next N years, probably. 3/

If Art 50 can't be revoked by UK, what if some country such as The Netherlands said "We're happy to say yes, but we don't really like the UK having the rebate. The rebate means we need to pay a lot into the EU budget to make up for the shortfall". /4

If the UK can't stay under its current (very favourable) terms with the rebate, various permanent opt-outs and special deals, how well would any changed conditions go down with the public and with the Eurosceptic Tories in particular? Not very well. /5

But let's now suppose Art 50 *can* be withdrawn and all goes back as before.
Would nothing change then?
I know many Remainers think it would not but I think there would be a fundamental change: the UK's bargaining position would be weakened. 6/

Up until now the UK could always say: Give us this special deal, or else we'll walk out. Suppose they try this again, and see how it works out now: 7/

UK: We don't want to pay child benefit to EU workers living in the UK who have children living in the EU-27 (a tiny sum, but lots of people go swivelled over this)
EU: Sorry, no, but we can't do that
UK: Do, it or else!
EU: Or else what?
UK: We'll leave!
EU: Sure thing
See? 8/

A fundamental change in power relations.
UK would no longer be the prima donna, the spoiled child asking special deals.
It would be a grownup among grownups at the table.
Rather than asking for special deals and opt-outs, they could try to work with rest of EU 9/

I think this would be a change for good. The UK, like some other European countries (looking at you, Hungary, Poland!) needs to stop thinking it is exceptional. We're not. We're a patchwork of middle-sized economies. If we don't cooperate, we're toast. 10/

That requires looking at problems, threats and opportunities (e.g., refugees drowning on Mediterranean, terrorism, climate change, the accumulation of wealth by the super-rich, the power of multinationals) together, not navel gazing. 11/

That's ultimately what the EU can do for us
*tackling problems/threats collectively
*protecting ordinary people from the power of multinationals/oligarchs by protections in environment, workers and consumers
*negotiating power against other trading blocs/countries (e.g., US) 12/

I still believe the UK should be part of the EU. I hope it can still be done. But I don't want to see the situation anymore where the UK actively undermines any efforts by the EU to organize so as to achieve those aims. Something to keep in mind, should Art 50 be revokable /ends