THREAD on #IranUpdate and possibilities. The Third Current movement[a new movement formed by young leaders with different backgrounds]asked Iranians to start cross country protests. People responded positively and protests kicked off on 31st of July. 1/16
It appears for the first time one group has influence inside Iran to guide people and current protests are very different than last ones in DEC-JAN. However, only central parts of Iran have joined the anti regime protests. Kurds, Azaris,Ahwazi Arabs&Balouchis have not joined.2/16
Last DEC-JAN it was the Kurdish cities of Kermanshah, KhorramAbad, followed by Azari-Kurdish city of Hamedan and Ahwaz which shocked many. After aforementioned cities went on the streets the protests reached more than 98 cities in less than 11 days. 3/16
That's why Security forces showed excessive use of violence as the regime was scared and knew that if minorities don't stop then the situation could end up badly for Tehran. This time however, protests have started from central Fars populated (major cities) in #Iran. 4/16
Mashahd, Esfahan, Karaj and Shiraz are the first four largest cities in Iran after Tehran. Security forces have not shown the same brutality as they did in DEC-JAN as in the first week of the protests 26 protesters were killed and more than 56 were wounded. 5/16
The Iranian regime knows that if they try to oppress the protesters the way they did in DEC-JAN things could go horribly wrong.Therefore,the regime's trying to end the protests without using much force.Iran still tries to show that Iranian regime is a Fars centralised regime.6/16
By giving this img Iranian officials may think they can keep nationalists on their side(delusion).However,due to current situation in Iran,the majority couldn't care less about blackmails such as 'if you start protesting we'll be like Syria'/'the plan is to help separatists.'7/16
Young generation believe/see their future is at risk with the current regime in power. They have their future to lose. The Iranian regime is trying to stop current protests before they could reach other cities and regions. 8/16
Protests are spreading slowly but all the cities come on the streets everyday which wasn't the case back in DEC-JAN. Karaj is known as second Tehran and plays an important role in holding the ground for protests to continue. 9/16
More importantly slogans are much more political than DEC-JAN in central Iran. Slogans target the entire establishment rather than economic demands. We hear people only mostly chant "death to Khamenei, death to Rouhani, death to the IRGC, the regime must be overthrown." 10/16
If protests keep going for a week or so then more cities will join and controlling the situation for the regime could become impossible. Some Azari cities are preparing to join on Saturday but it is not clear yet. 11/16
Minorities have many questions before they start taking part in the protests. But one of the most important questions is how will regime forces react, considering the level of brutality used by them back in DEC-JAN. 12/16
The effort by two groups inside Iran is to make sure current major cities hold their ground, continue to protest and make sure north and neighbouring provinces such as Kerman, Yazd, Semnan, south Khorasan, Golestan, Mazandaran and Gilan also join.13/16
Social media[especially Telegram]is the main source for ppl inside Iran to organise themselves&source of news.However,this time the regime can't stop protests[like back in DEC-JAN]by simply cutting off the internet but Opposition groups need to unite. 14/16
There is a movement now guides and leads the protests(The Third Current Movement) which wasn't the case in DEC-JAN. Monarchists and those who want a secular republic can also unite with this group which I believe it is unlikely to happen. 15/16
I tweeted this thread last night but I had to delete it for some reasons.
Tomorrow is an important day for current anti establishment protests. 16/16
Tomorrow is an important day for current anti establishment protests. 16/16
