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James Rothwell @JamesERothwell
, 12 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Thread on Brexit, lorry drivers, Chris Grayling and no deal planning. If you think government's no deal planning is all fine and dandy, *read this*. Full story also below.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
I understand that senior members of Britain's road haulage industry came out of a recent meeting with Grayling where they were astonished by his lack of grasp of the key detail on Brexit
One of them, Kevin Hopper, who runs a major firm up in Yorkshire, said that he tried to explain to Grayling that if there is no Brexit deal then UK haulage drivers won't be able to drive in EU as their papers will be invalid
Grayling, he says, "looked at me like I was speaking a foreign language."
Kevin, who has 40 years industry experience, then showed to Grayling a copy of the EU's notice to stakeholders from the Commission's website, which confirms exactly that: no deal, no recognition of UK drivers. This document:
ec.europa.eu/transport/site…
Kevin says Grayling appeared to have never heard of this document but he insisted that "everything would be fine"
Grayling then said we "hope" there will be deal.
Kevin: "But what if there ISN'T a deal? Can you tell me, minister, what plans are there to remedy this situation?"
Grayling: "Well, could you suggest anything?"
Kevin: I can't believe this
Grayling: What do you expect from me?
Kevin: I expect clarity
Grayling: What do you mean?
Kevin: I mean I want clarity
Grayling: I can't give you that
This was infuriating for Kevin and colleagues because they have **already** been forced to turn down contracts with EU countries as they don't know if they will be able to do those jobs.
The Department for Transport, however, says it is confident that there will be a deal with the EU but that everything will be fine if there is no deal. And that there will be plenty of permits in deal scenario.
Illustrates just how frustrated and angry businesses are with UK handling of these talks, The government appears to be sleepwalking towards no deal while claiming it's fine and dandy because there will be deal. There is a serious disconnect between what it says and what it does
Tl;dr: put Kevin in charge/ends
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Over past year I've spoken to MPs, experts and ministers in Norway and Iceland about what they really think of EEA/Efta membership. So here's a monster thread on the pros and cons of what could end up as the UK's Brexit Plan B
For those new to this (hi!), these countries are in the European Economic Area (EEA) which gives them full access to EU's single market. Their judiciary works under the Efta court, instead of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). Hence "EEA/Efta".
In October I went to Oslo, where overall EEA/Efta was felt to be best compromise for a country that voted 52 per cent to stay out of EU and 48 per cent to join it.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Read 17 tweets
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We are stuck. The risk of 'no deal' Brexit is greater than ever. Is it time to consider a compromise, and opt for a Norway-style Brexit? My latest, from Oslo - also in today's paper:
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First, cards on the table: no it doesn't satisfy everyone. Yes it requires backstop/custom union. And yes it's far from ideal. Now that's out of the way...
(Also, this is going to be a long 'un because this was a fascinating assignment. Though I'm not giving it all away. Get a subscription for that, you barbarians)
Read 23 tweets
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Per EU sources, things are not as chaotic as they seem...Dominic Raab walkout was no surprise to EU chiefs and part of No 10 "choreography" to send a message to home audience that May is a staunch defender of UK.
There was a "good" proposal from Olly Robbins on the backstop but there were two key issues with it and that's why there was no agreement over the weekend.
Problem 1: The EU didn't like UK attempt to drop a future relationship ingredient (all-UK customs union) into the mix of the divorce deal. I understand EU *will* accept a full UK customs union, but **only after** the backstop is agreed and signed.
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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So @DominicRaab and Brexiteers think a defeat for @theresa_may
on Dec 11 will allow the UK to renegotiate the Irish backstop, specifically the right to leave unilaterally.

Here's why, after chats with both sides, that ain't happening IMO. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may First Raab thinks a PM that shows some "will and resolve" can get the EU to change its mind.

But his own experience must tell him different. Remember his own failed tilt at @simoncoveney demanding three-month exit clause? Fail. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may @simoncoveney But even allowing for disingenuousness, there are 3 reasons why the EU is not bluffing when it says it won't renegotiate the backstop to give the UK a unilateral walkout clause.

1. They actually want to avoid a hard border
2. Political solidarity
3. They don't buy UK bluff /3
Read 20 tweets
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The #Brexit tunnellers are tunnelling in pursuit of that elusive crock of gold - a deal.

What are they trying to finesse? How are they trying to close a deal? Here's what I know after chats with both sides. 1/Thread
As we all know, "it's the backstop, stupid" that is the problem.

But more specifically, how long the backstop lasts, and whether the UK can ever leave it.

This is the crux of the matter. /2
Last week was a big step forward, with the EU tentatively agreeing to write an all-UK customs arrangement *into* the Withdrawal Agreement.

So not a promise to do this in the future, but an operable text that requires no subsequent additions to function. /3
Read 16 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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The #Brexit crunch is coming, so after the summer break I've written a piece looking at the 10 questions we should be looking at....but are too busy shouting at each other to consider. Here are my ten... /1

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… questions
How much clout does a nation of 65 million people have in global trade?
Will the British government ask for the ability to extend the transition period?
Read 16 tweets
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Why did the European Commission not publish killer assessments of May's 'single market for goods' #Brexit pitch? How did the Brits get hold of them so quickly? Some thoughts. 1/THREAD

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First the bugging part. Did the spooks at GCHQ/MI6 have a hand in procuring the slides, or contents thereof, from the July 5 Article 50 Working Group?

Frankly, who knows? It's sure not impossible - recall Obama's NSA bugged Merkel - but EU concerns speak to the lack of trust/2
Just as plausibly one of those attending briefed the Brits that the Commission was about to fire a pre-emptive strike against May's expected Brexit pitch on the day of Chequers.

If that's what happened, it raises several interesting questions. /3
Read 22 tweets
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Olly Robbins is in Brussels today for more #Brexit talks.

Top of the agenda is the 'insoluble' Irish backstop issue - but how 'insoluble' it really? Is there a way through?

Maybe. Some thoughts after chats with both sides. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First, the problem, real quick.

EU needs 'backstop' that works in all eventualities, including a breakdown in future relationship talks at the end of transition.

With no border in Ireland, there "must" logically be checks between NI and GB to protect single market. /2
The problem is that puts a *customs* border in the Irish Sea, and the UK government cannot live with that, since it splits up UK.

Theresa May was very hard over on this point in her speech in Belfast. Barnier's Task Force 50 blanched last week when they saw how hard over. /3
Read 22 tweets

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