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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
I haven't tweeted much after the NAFTA / US / Mexico talks in the US. That's because as I understand the situation from experts like @AaronsonSusan @inumanak @snlester it isn't altogether clear what is agreed and whether it can ever pass Congress in current form.
There probably is some read-across from NAFTA to a potential UK-US deal (particularly in agriculture and Intellectual Property) but I'm waiting for more information for the moment
It does look like NAFTA mark 2 might beat Brexit to the tag of 'first trade agreement to increase trade barriers'
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As forecast the UK Government has committed to following a significant part of single market rules after Brexit as part of the backstop and commitments to Northern Ireland (doc - assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…)
Although the Government paper says this will be "only a small fraction of EU rules", in fact there are nearly 70 pages of the Withdrawal Agreement simply listing the regulations Northern Ireland will have to follow under the backstop (example page below)
In case you are missing the significance, the UK Government has confirmed that the whole country will follow EEA / single market disciplines without any representation until a new deal can be agreed.
Read 5 tweets
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Brexit is testing Parliamentary procedure. The Government does not command a majority.

Might as well break protocol further, it is time for a Parliamentary committee to take control of the Brexit process.
Yes, I can think of many reasons why this won't work, but nothing that would work better. We're going to be stuck in Parliamentary bickering for weeks unless something new is done.
See also this Guardian proposal as championed by @stellacreasy among others for a Brexit citizens assembly. We have to break out of where we are and not perpetuate divisionism theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Read 3 tweets
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With the Brexit debate returning to Parliament today, let's go back to basics and explore the facts, key issues, and questions that should be raised in the coming days. Thread... 1/
Most important point, which cannot be emphasised enough - the Withdrawal Agreement is primarily concerned with the terms of the divorce, e.g. financial, citizenship, and not the future (though the Irish backstop complicates this) 2/
Thus any statement a Minister makes about the future relationship being secured (such as that below from the Gov's 40 reasons to back the Brexit deal) is false. The political declaration setting out the future relationship is not binding. 3/
Read 20 tweets

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Been asked why I haven’t tweeted much about N Korea lately. Sorry. Some of it’s bc I OD’d on Korea Twitter earlier this year & need a break. But a lot of it’s bc things are basically frozen on the political & strategic issues we care about - human rights, nukes, missiles, and /1
KPA deployments on the MDL north of Seoul. The rest is so much hand-waving & subject-changing. The Moon government keeps proposing outreach ideas that almost certainly violate sanctions, while the US grinds its teeth. And Kim still hasn’t given an inventory of nukes & missiles /2
which wd make denuclearization possible. Also,the UN special rapporteur for NK HR just said last week that the HR situation in NK hasn’t changed at all in the last 2 years. So basically nothing has changed.Moon keeps throwing out ideas in hopes that Kim will give up something, /3
Read 5 tweets
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#Mexico helping unvetted African migrants to U.S. border, many from Al-Shabaab jihadi hotbed wp.me/p4hgqZ-pSy

Caravan Jihad? you better believe it!
#Muslim captured coming over southern U.S. border had ties to #Taliban wp.me/p4hgqZ-o0M

#Jihadis among the #MigrantCaravan is not as ridiculous as @CNN would have you believe
Pakistani Muslim arrested crossing #Texas border, lied to #FBI wp.me/p4hgqZ-nLy

Caravan Jihad? 🤔
Read 9 tweets
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In 1992, the year before #NAFTA’s passage, the US had a $5.6 billion trade surplus with Mexico. In 2004, under NAFTA, it reversed with a vengeance; $45.1 billion more in goods came in from Mexico, an unprecedented $50.7 billion swing to deficit. gregpalast.com/how-democrats-…
The macroeconomic modeling I did in my old academic days suggests that, roughly, such a loss of income to the USA costs half a million jobs. You can quibble with the estimate, call it 300,000 jobs or 900,000. But a $50.7 billion crocodile is difficult to disguise as a pet gecko.
American workers could have done worse, of course, and they did. The trade deficit with Canada went from a small $8 billion before #NAFTA to a Katrina-sized $73 billion in 2005. gregpalast.com/how-democrats-…
Read 10 tweets
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#NAFTA is a trilateral agreement between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada – and it needs to stay that way.

Here are a few reasons why. A #TrilateralTuesday thread…
Transitioning from #NAFTA to bilateral agreements would disrupt the flow of trade. The U.S. trades with Mexico and Canada to the tune of $3.5 billion…every single day. #TrilateralTuesday uschamber.com/comment/us-cha…
Pursuing bilateral agreements instead of a trilateral agreement would also put jobs at risk. Approximately 14 million American jobs depend on trade with Canada and Mexico. #TrilateralTuesday uschamber.com/nafta-works
Read 7 tweets
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With seemingly significant #NAFTA breakthroughs between the US and Mexico, Canada is increasingly looking like it may be snubbed on NAFTA. Why is this happening? For one thing, Ottawa has not adjusted to the changing game on trade: macdonaldlaurier.ca/canada-must-re…
While any Canadian government would have faced challenges negotiating with this US administration, Ottawa's failure to adjust to the evolving political landscape South of the border means that we aren't blameless #NAFTA #cdnecon #uspoli #cdnpoli macdonaldlaurier.ca/us-canada-trad…
Furthermore, while some may argue that Canada's retaliatory tariffs may have been justified, realistically "there are no sources of economic pain that Canada can inflict on the United States that would not also be much worse for Canada," says @DawsonCanada macdonaldlaurier.ca/u-s-trade-war-…
Read 9 tweets
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My FBR party yesterday was a great idea, and I loved seeing everyone's posts about how they contribute to the resistance. However, it got me thinking about two polarizing opinions on HOW we resist, and I'd like to address those. 1/
One point of view seems to be that resisting by retweeting, hosting and joining FBR parties, and sometimes trolling Trump himself or arguing with trolls and conservatives online, are all excellent ways of resisting. 2/
On the opposite end, others are very critical of anyone who isn't constantly active offline. You'll hear both "We should be in the streets every day!" and "Marching solves nothing, you have to vote!" 3/
Read 26 tweets

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