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Tren Griffin @trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Charlie Munger: "[Jeremy Siegel] is comparing apples to elephants in trying to make accurate projections about the future.” Also: mungerisms.blogspot.com/2009/09/munger…
One of the most valuable behavioral investing edges is harvesting alpha from other investors which use accounting ratios based on accounting "earnings" instead of free cash flow. The investor must do actual work though instead of finding a # on a web site. knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/siegel…
No one explains this source of investing outperformance from focusing on cash flow rather than earnings better than Michael Mauboussin. expectationsinvesting.com/pdf/earnings.p…
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"According to the survey results, the median pay for full-time writers was $20,300 in 2017, and that number decreased to $6,080 when part-time writers were considered. The latter figure reflects a 42 percent drop since 2009, when the median was $10,500."
In my blog post on writing books I wrote: "6. Don’t expect to earn more than the minimum wage and be thrilled if you earn more." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"In Mémoires (1759), Voltaire recalled how in his youth he had come across so many writers who were “penniless and held in contempt” that “he had decided not to add to their number.” laphamsquarterly.org/luck/voltaires… "Thanks to his fortune he was free to pursue his writerly life."
Read 3 tweets
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"Companies can lose a lot of money in their early years but be wonderful businesses if they are acquiring customers with long lives and strong variable margins."

But some businesses just do the losing money part. A critical skill is knowing the difference between the two types.
Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) = valuing a business on a "bottoms up" basis by valuing the customers. In a subscription business especially, this is an essential process if you want to understand if real value is being created despite a lack of current GAAP earnings.
"CBCV isn’t about being profitable from day one. It’s about variable profitability in net present value terms (while still being mindful of fixed cost overhead of course!)" Determining whether a specific business is a delicious cheesecake or a turd requires detective work.
Read 6 tweets
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“The Fasten Seat Belt sign is now illuminated. If you haven’t already done so, please check your cash and cash equivalent balances. Please lower your burn rate and make sure your defensive investments are in their full upright position.”
“If you find yourself needing an emergency exit from illiquid investments, please read carefully the special instructions card. Cash is more king than ever. If you can’t handle the haircut you are about to experience, please ask someone to do the selling to raise cash for you.”
“We remind you this remains an uncertain and no sympathy correction. No one knows anything for sure as is usual. Crying and whining is prohibited, including in the lavatories. Tampering with, disabling or destroying your brokerage statements is pointless and prohibited by law.”
Read 5 tweets

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1/ We have a major investigation into Maximus, a company massively profiting off Trump's war on the poor motherjones.com/politics/2018/…
2/ Maximus is the biggest contractor that administers things like work requirement and means testing for SNAP (food stamps) and public assistance. Trump and the GOP want to roll out ever more onerous requirements to millions of Americans. motherjones.com/politics/2018/…
3/ The company got its initial traction during Clinton-era workfare programs. But that's nothing compared to today's bonanza motherjones.com/politics/2018/…
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Thread:
So, just to recap:
Mrs May fame to office promising to ‘deliver’ for the 17m.
Never mind the rest of the electorate.
This was going to ‘unite’ the country
(1/?)
When @thatginamiller suggested Parliament (the place whose sovereignty #brexit was supposed to protect) have a say, she spent our money going to the highest court to try to stop her (2/?)
She said she wouldn’t call an election, but when MPs tried to do their job, she decided to go to the country to ‘crush the saboteurs’ - as that nice mr Dacre put it (3/?)
Read 14 tweets
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For me, so far in my memory reconstruction, it seems like everything was just mind control; Pavlovian response conditioning through torture. But I remain open to the possibility that "demons" & "Evil entities" may exist. Per the Bible, ALL DEMONS SUBMIT to the power of CHRIST.
And whether these 'Demons' are objectively real ethereal entitles or simply subhuman people doing nasty sh*t to kids here on Earth, either way, invoking the name of Jesus & following Christ is THE WAY to escape this hell on earth. I know because I did it. Thank you God!
If I am ever feeling doubt, wondering if these "witches" are cursing me at any given moment, knowing that they target me on ritual dates with focused malice, I simply say aloud "Demons have no power over me. I am protected by Christ. In the name of Jesus, take a blessing & leave"
Read 39 tweets
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Thread: The East End of the Chinese Trans-Africa Railway

1. I remain an Army of One shouting to the moon about the Chinese plan for world domination (sorry for the mixed metaphors here, but you get the idea).
2. A previous thread discussed Chinese plans for a Trans-Africa railway system as the western-most “belt” in their Belt-Road Initiative (BRI) on the Dark Continent.

3. That thread introduced the economic mechanism by which China seeks to control access to the raw materials needed to fuel Chinese industry in the 21st century and beyond. African nations are desperate for foreign investment, particularly in infrastructure.
Read 20 tweets
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Today feels like a turning point - the Western alliance and the global trading system are coming under the same intense strain that Trump has created for our domestic institutions. Will Congressional Rs continue to stand by, paralyzed by fears of their base?
Read 11 tweets
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💪A thread on amazing Twitter threads 😍👇
In the process of revamping my #Twitter profile (dormant earlier), I have come to appreciate the wonderful underutilized platform it is!
Some threads contain crisp knowledge capsules that can help many. Starting 1 on such curated content
1. I largely rely on this: threadreaderapp.com to find content
2. What I wish to share is what coincides largely with my interests- #Learning, #Investing, #Behavioralpsychology (#mentalmodels, #bias, etc), #Businessbooks, Industry insights/case studies, Life experiences, etc
3/n
 While it will be difficult to structure the order of content here, I will try to block threads by category (as noted above & more). Feel free to comment with any good thread that you would have come across. Cumulative learning always helps.
#vicariouslearning
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