Thread by @Usherwood

Let's talk about no-deal planning for a bit, because several of us are getting confused again:

1/

In any negotiation it is prudent to prepare for not reaching an agreement, since you can't guarantee that the other lot will be amenable to a negotiated outcome

2/

That's not to say they don't want to get such an outcome, or that you don't, just that sometimes such things happen

3/

That contingency planning is a reflection of your BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agt): ie the best/least-worst plan B, should your negotiation fail

4/

Really importantly, it's an alternative to a **negotiated agt**, so it has to be about what you can achieve without having to rely at all on the other side

5/

This is where I have a major issue with the UK's Brexit no-deal contingency notices, since they regularly rely on going back to the EU to secure emergency, limited deals on specific points of regulation

6/

It's one thing to say you'll copy/follow EU regulations (since that doesn't require the EU to do anything), but completely another to say that in the failure to secure a negotiated outcome, you'll go and negotiate an outcome

7/

Again, it's not that such an emergency negotiation can't work, but rather than you can't be sure it'll work, hence the need to be clear about what you (by yourself) can do

8/

To extend this, if you're a business doing contingency planning on Brexit, you could sensibly be prepared for what things would look like if the UK gvt didn't do the things it says it would in a no-deal situation

9/

It's a bit like those individuals taking up EU citizenships: because they can't be sure what will happen, they do what they have under their control to secure their interests

10/

So let's wrap this up by underlining that this is not at all about not trying to work for negotiated outcomes, or not trusting your interlocutors.

Instead, it's about not finding yourself with your trousers around your ankles when the toilet door accidentally blows open

/end