1) This... is probably entirely accurate.
2) In 2016, the Cocaine Gambit which is what I shall call Mitch McConnell’s maneuvers to hold open Scalia’s former seat was conceived and executed for the first time in history.
3) The Cocaine Gambit essentially consists of holding your voting block together in a desperate gamble to drive voter turnout for an election by creating a prize your base would salivate at.
4) In McConnell’s case, it was a no lose situation. Either the GOP would lose their senate majority and/or the presidency, in which case Garland would be seated anyways, or the GOP could hold or take one of them and have a better bargaining position for filling the seat.
5) This is another aspect of strategery. Assume that the worst case scenario is an expected outcome anyways, and you can take all kinds of risks to try to achieve a better outcome.
6) In this case, the left wanted Merrick (again, the fuck kind of name is Merrick? Sounds like a name out of some young adult tolkein knockoff). No matter how bad things went, at worst, the left would get Merrick. Its not like they could clone another idiot like Kagan.
7) And this is where Cocaine Mitch did things RIGHT.
He never gave Merrick any hearings or a vote.
Why does this matter?
He never gave Merrick any hearings or a vote.
Why does this matter?
8) Two reasons. One, this locked in Merrick as the left’s justice of choice. Hell, they’re STILL demanding he have a seat. I’ve read some of his stuff, he’s really not a far leftist, he was actually more of a center-left compromise pick all things considered.
9) So instead of a bait and switch for another Kagan or Sotomayor, the Cocaine Gambit left the Dems chomping at the bit to confirm... a compromise pick.
10) Secondly, Merrick was spared the humiliation of being rejected by the Senate. If the Dems had won in 2016, Merrick would have been untarnished by an ugly confirmation battle like Kavanaugh just suffered. He was never rejected.
11) The Dems, of course, lost in 2016, and the Cocaine Gambit paid off. So they tried to do the same now. Exceeeeept they fucked up royal.
12) First, they are the minority party, which comes with its own set of limitations. They couldn’t passively ignore Kavanaugh, they had to slow him down through bureaucratic force.
13) The Cocaine Gambit relied on basically blueballing the Dems for a couple months. The Dems couldn’t do that here, so they went on the offensive, which made their efforts even more blatantly partisan.
14) The second way they fucked up the Cocaine Gambit was that there ARE worse case scenarios for them. If we don’t get Kavanaugh, we frog march Barrett into the SCOTUS.
15) The third way? (Yeah, this list will go on awhile) In 2016 the GOP had multiple win conditions, multiple ways they could improve their bargaining position. They could build a larger majority, they could take back the presidency, even maintaining the status quo would work out
16) The GOP only really lost if they lost the Senate AND the presidency. 3 ways to come out ahead, 1 way to lose.
17) In 2018, the Dems are facing a BRUTAL Senate election season. They have more losing conditions than winning conditions, as the presidency isn’t up for grabs.
They can lose further in the senate, keep the status quo, or retake the senate.
They can lose further in the senate, keep the status quo, or retake the senate.
18) They are at a disadvantage with the status quo, so thats a losing condition. losing more seats is an even worse condition. And retaking the Senate isnt that good of a win condition either, with Trump still president.
19) Right now, Breyer and Ginsburg are the two most likely to retire. If the Dems retook the senate, Trump just holds the 9th seat open or lets the Dems shit the bed repeatedly denying him ANY picks, claim obstruction, then let ginsburg or breyer retire to get a majority angways
20) Finally, the Dems Cocaine Gambit got fucked up because they went on the offensive, so instead of just blueballing the GOP they PISSED US OFF.
21) They pissed us off so much, COCAINE MITCH has been able to pull a Cocaine Gambit of his own with the help (witting or otherwise) of Flake.
22) The seat won’t stay open until the midterms, but with allowing the Dems and Flake’s actions to prolong this shitshow into october, the GOP base is INCREDIBLY pissed off, and the GOP has their ear to the ground for polling and the ground game.
23) The GOP even admitted that they have the bump in polls from a Trump rally or endorsement calculated down to the exact percent. They are measuring and watching for the outrage diminishing returns from voters. Before things turn sour, McConnell will pull the trigger to confirm.
24) And who do you think thought of THAT strategy? It couldn’t be the same team of fucking madmen that said, “Lets hold rallies in the rust belt”, could it?
25) “But he wouldn’t-“ shut the fuck up. As I’ve said, as @thomaswictor quoted me saying, I have never seen a strategist like him EVER. This guy is unreal. I know its not a feverdream or confirmation bias BECAUSE HE KEEPS WINNING AND COMING OUT ON TOP.
@ThomasWictor 26) I have broken 2 card games in my life and taken mediocre skills and game knowledge combined with game breaking strategery to hit finalist status in tournaments, coming out of nowhere to beat players far better mechanically and skill wise than me.
@ThomasWictor 27) The first was Magic. Me and a few others pioneered a lockdown deck, ie a combination of cards that kept your opponent from doing anything. The problem was surviving until getting this combo into play, then finding a way to win.
@ThomasWictor 28) Then, planeswalkers came out. They were cards who had abilities that got around the mechanics of the lockdown and could winnthe game theiugh attrition, but most importantly an opponent could damage them instead of the player.
@ThomasWictor 29) So, when I played one of these planeswalkers in a game, I would tell my opponent, “I am playing a lockdown deck. Their abilities get around the lockdown once I have it in active, and I will win the game through attrition after that. Good luck.”
@ThomasWictor 30) The opponent would then either make a mad dive trying to kill the planeswalker, buying me the turns i needed to activate the lockdown and winning anyways or the planeswalkers abilities helped me survive until the lockdown anyways as they thought they should hit me exclusively
@ThomasWictor 31) I was pretty much mediocre at the game, but just that little bluff was enough to secure me far more wins than I even remotely deserved.
@ThomasWictor 32) TRUMP IS OPERATING ON A DIFFERENT LEVEL ENTIRELY. I consider myself fortunate that I can see how things ended up in his favor AFTER the fact. I can guarantee you to this day almost none of his opponents know what hit them years after their defeats. Just look at Hillary.
@ThomasWictor 33) I’m not going to say trust any plans or any prognosticating horseshit like that (and for all you people that followed me in the past week, a word of warning; if I see Qtard shit I block basically on sight.)
@ThomasWictor 34) But, I will say this.
EVERYTHING IS A GAME PIECE. He will use you. He will use your anger. He will use outrage. He will use your misfortune. He will use your fuckups. He will call down artillery onto friendly positions (metaphorically speaking) because he is willing to win.
EVERYTHING IS A GAME PIECE. He will use you. He will use your anger. He will use outrage. He will use your misfortune. He will use your fuckups. He will call down artillery onto friendly positions (metaphorically speaking) because he is willing to win.
@ThomasWictor 35) Having someone like him on your side is simultaneously the greatest blessing and the most terrifying circumstances possible. Someone like him will make you think that you are at your lowest point ever with your back to a wall because he wants you to redouble your efforts.
@ThomasWictor 36) I’m not afraid of things. Most shit doesn’t matter. Twitter is just an echo chamber, it is just noise. Nothing we see here is truly real, strictly speaking.
But there is one thought that existentially terrifies me.
Trump taking notice of me as a game piece.
/end
But there is one thought that existentially terrifies me.
Trump taking notice of me as a game piece.
/end
