There's a ~70% chance the GOP keeps the Senate. I'd tend to think McConnell gets someone confirmed in the lame duck even if they lose the Senate, but it's less of a safe bet then it would have been if Kavanaugh had withdrawn/been voted down a couple weeks ago.
So let's say there's a 10-15% chance we wind up with a Democratic Senate and no confirmed SCOTUS pick. How bad is that for the GOP? Debatable, actually. The Dem Senate majority would likely be very narrow (e.g. 51-49) and would include a lot of red-state Dems (Manchin, Jones).
You probably wouldn't get a Barrett confirmed. But you probably (?) could get e.g. a Hardiman and/or you could cause a lot of internal dissention within the Democratic caucus. It's not as good as getting a staunch conservative. But you still have some optionality.
