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Holger Hestermeyer @hhesterm
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Signs of an increasingly disrupted world order - short thread, which - I fear - will get longer over time. Exhibit 1: Interpol president disappears. China remains silent.
Exhibit 2: Saudi Arabia freezing new trade with Canada over human rights criticizsm reuters.com/article/us-sau…
Exhibit 3: Saudi Arabia allegedly killing a man at a consulate nytimes.com/2018/10/06/wor…
Exhibit 4: US withdrawing from Optional Protocol of the Vienna Convention. Announced by the national security advisor. Does the US even have a secretary of State? Whatever happened to him? reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Exhibit 5 of course are the tariffs imposed by the US on national security grounds. Imposed originally also on Canada even though under treaty law the US regards Canadian steel as part of its national security imperative... cbp.gov/trade/programs…
Exhibit 6: the blockade of Qatar ft.com/content/57952e…
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This has impressively strange statements from all three speakers. So some simple facts (thread)
1) No unilateral extension of Art. 50. Extension requires all Member States and the UK to agree. That’s Art. 50(3) of the TEU
2) The other two speakers speculated about what it would take for other member states to agree. Yes, a game changer. But that’s certainly not a new government with a new negotiation plan from scratch. “We don’t like it, let’s start over” is not a likely option.
Read 4 tweets
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I do not have the time for a full analysis - but allow me to point out some obvious shortcomings. As one of the authors can and does claim particular WTO expertise, I will not be as forgiving as I am with people who have no prior experience. (Thread)
The document claims to give us 30 truths about leaving on WTO terms. Allow me to link it again here for your convenience: globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl…
Let’s start easy: the introduction suggests that the backstop can be replaced by a full FTA. Easy. Tusk is willing to do it. This is wrong. 1) we cannot negotiate a full future relationship in 3 months 2) remember the sequencing we agreed to?
Read 34 tweets
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My new explanation of this is, if you want, a version of path-dependency. Let me explain (short thread)
I had an aha moment at a recent conference, where a very experienced politician said that the current deadlock could only be resolved by a referendum or a general election.
What I found surprising was the mention of a general election. When the audience pointed out that both major parties have the same problem that they are split by Brexit, he conceded rapidly that a GE does not hold out the prospect of help.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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#Thread of responses from women in aerodynamics to the question, 'what would you like to see in order for women's career progression in your field to be sustained and better supported?'

Responses incl. career flexibility, mentoring and more women in leadership roles #WomeninSTEM
1. "I think young female engineers need to see more female role models and mentors in my field. Having a visible example of someone that looks like you and is succeeding in their field is important. Having an opportunity to meet with a mentor like that can be very powerful."
2. "I would like to see that any career promotion is based on own merits and value added to the company or the society independently of the gender. I want that women are measured with the same rules as men and are given equal opportunities."
Read 68 tweets
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#Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman,suspected to have ordered murder of journalist #JamalKashoggi, launched unprecedented crackdown vs women’s rights activists in May. Those activists have been tortured & one has tried suicide 3 times google.com/amp/s/www.wash… h/t @SherifaZuhur
Some of the activists (none of whom have been formally charged or given access to lawyers) have been subjected to psychological or physical abuse while in custody, including electric shocks, sexual harassment, sleep deprivation and beatings. #Saudi
“In one reported instance, one of the activists was made to hang from the ceiling, and according to another testimony, one of the detained women was reportedly subjected to sexual harassment, by interrogators wearing face masks.” amnesty.org/en/latest/news… #Saudi
Read 21 tweets
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My final thread today (before boarding my flight): What does this all mean and what happens now? Again, caveat, yada yada yada, these are my impressions, I'm not stating them as facts. But:
I've warned against being too cynical because, as I had said, too much cynicism prepares you to accept the worst outcomes and lowers your expectations. But also, there's such a thing as "stupid cynicism" = almost making excuses for yourself to not push hard & cease opportunities.
Now, yes, people are understandable anxious. I am too. I want you to stay worried, stay concerned, stay angry, and keep pushing for the truth, and never accept to be taken for a ride or for your intelligence to be insulted. Demand answers, keep pushing.
Read 16 tweets
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#Khashoggi Case Thread: I am going to ‘pin’ this post to use it as an ‘Info Thread’ on the #Khashoggi Case. I am in #Turkey. I’ve been following the case closely and with access to sources & experts here. This is a very ‘sensitive’ criminal case due to ‘Diplomatic Booby Traps’!!!
The Evidence Obtained Outside Cameras will not show any evidence of ‘tempering’ but other than license plates of dozens of diplomatic cars (Many with tinted windows-large trunks) with related time stamp, drivers Info, model/year: Nothing.
#Turkish Intel-Investigative Bodies also have the list of all Diplomatic & Private Saudi & “other significant’ Planes in #Turkey for the period of ‘interest.’ Many of the Target airports have their own security cameras & related evidence.
Read 335 tweets
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Thread on #Saudi meddling in #Yemen's internal affairs. Listed and in chronological order. Keep this in mind, next time some nutjob on the news rants about supposed "Iranian meddling" in regards to Yemen.
- Saudi-Yemeni War of 1934, dispute over regional ownership ends with #Saudi Arabia annexing the Yemeni provinces of Najran, Jizan and Asir. Saudi Arabia held Hodeidah city occupied and threatened to cut off food supplies as blackmail.
- Saudi support for the Kingdom of Yemen during the 1962 Republican revolution. Imam Ahmad bin Yahya was dethroned because of corruption and for transforming the legitimate imamate into a monarchy. What followed was 5 years of brutal civil war.
Read 9 tweets
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#Saudi Arabia says #Canada's statement on the arrest of activists in the Kingdom is an unacceptable interference in its internal affairs, expels the Canadian ambassador and freezes all future trade. bbc.in/2vs6crl
"In her first public response to Saudi Arabia's actions, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Monday: 'Let me be very clear ... Canada will always stand up for human rights in Canada and around the world, and women's rights are human rights'." aljazeera.com/news/2018/08/s…
Direct investment was already down in #Saudi Arabia after some of the recent disturbances; this spat with #Canada is unlikely to help. on.wsj.com/2OgITYl
Read 6 tweets

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