Something to keep in mind for 2016 House and Senate race: It's important to watch the physical space Democrats win votes, not just raw vote totals.
Today, Democrats and Republicans are near parity in terms of House vote share. Republicans won 51.7% of popular House vote in 2016 but won 55.4% of House seats at the start of the 115th. Some of that is due to gerrymandering but not close to all of it.
For example, even by the most generous estimates (Brennan Center projected Republicans won 17 seats due to gerrymandering), it still would not give Democrats a House majority.
Where the parties win votes is important. Political geography matters.
Where the parties win votes is important. Political geography matters.
Over the last couple decades Democrats have increasingly won cities by larger margins. It's common for Democrats to win urban districts w/70-90%. By contrast, Republicans are spread out in rural and suburban areas, commonly winning districts w/55-65% of the vote.
Unsurprisingly, Democrats’ average margin of victory was 41.54%. Republicans' average margin of victory was only 33.51%. Democrats waste more votes because it is incredibly hard to spread out geographically concentrated votes in urban areas across outlying parts of the state.
Though hats off to Maryland, who managed to divide the DC-Baltimore corridor 7 different ways, limiting Republicans to one seat.
Western Maryland isn't very Democratic but Bethesda is. You're welcome John Delaney.
Western Maryland isn't very Democratic but Bethesda is. You're welcome John Delaney.
The inefficient geographic dispersal of votes plays a role in Democrats' vote-to-seat disadvantage. They often win fewer House seats than their popular vote share. Republicans, by contrast, have recently won between 4-6% more seats than their popular vote totals.
This wasn't always the case. Democrats owned a vote-to-seat advantage for most of the 20th century, which led to remarkable run of majority status from the New Deal to 1995. Between 1933 and 1995, Democrats held the House majority for 58 of those 62 years.
During those years, Democrats vote-to-seat advantage averaged 6.1%. That advantage basically disappeared after they lost the South, the most populous, rural region of the country, in 1995. (from @BrookingsGov Vital Statistics on Congress)
Further, Democrats lost the South just as its population began to explode. The South gained 30 House seats since 1970 and are on track to gain another 5-6 after 2020.
In order for Democrats to regain a stable majority, they need to start consistently winning votes in places they largely haven't for more than 20 years. Whether 2018 reorients partisan politics or not will hinge not just on vote totals but also on the geography of that vote.
It's not just about winning more votes. Democrats could win more votes and still lose the House. The geographic dispersal of that vote is more important to the number of seats they control.
