A few comments on Saudi Arabia's (KSA) royal family rule & reporting on King Salman, Crown Pinrce Mohhamad bin Salman (MBS), If you read dramatic reporting in @washingtonpost and @nytimes you get the idea that MBS is a big change in many ways. Not true, at all.
In economics, social & politics, in military & geopolitics, & in treatment of dissidents, K. Salman and MBS are extensions of previous reign of King Abdullah. Main difference: they forced Abdullah's family & allied royals from power and installed their own family and allies.
The other difference is that MBS has been brasher, and convinced a lot of folks in his grand PR tour that he was different. Here's how he is much of the same. Geopolitics: MBS like Abdullah focuses on Iran (and by implication Shiites) as the worst problem in the world.
For Abduallah, this didn't play well with Obama. MBS found it plays incredibly well with Trump. Abduallh, remember, invaded Bahrain in 2001. Both MBS and Abdullah arrest Shiite dissidents. MBS compared Iran to Nazis. Military: the 3 yr disastrous war on Yemen is attached to MBS.
It should be, But under Abdullah his MBS-like young military chief embarked on a similar war against the Houthis in 2010-2012, with no clear political goal or result, calling it necessary because 'Iran was taking over Yemen'. A minor disaster causing the current huge one.
On dissidents and political reform, Abdullah and MBS aren't too different. Both played with broader reforms, for women Abdullah laid the groundwork for what MBS has done by putting more women in prominent roles, expanding women education opps, toying w/ cultural change (movies!)
But both were hesitant/chicken to go all the way, or at least as far as Dubai. Abduallah began the sidelining of the hardest line clerics that MBS has done. But only to a point, both afraid of undermining their own support base (a la Trump and evangelicals). Both repressed...
more progressive clerics. Abduallah also first reined in religius police but, like MBS, would not go all the way. As far as political dissidents, both hit both the right and left. It was Abdullah, and his US-loved star Mohammed bin Nayef, who jailed Raif Badawi, Waleed Abukhair..
Mohammed al Qahtani. MBS didn't release them, he jailed more. (So not sure why all those who bought into MBS as real reformer didn't get it). So what about the big economic reforms, the 'globalization' of the KSA economy, 'Davos in Riyadh' etc. Also nothing new under MBS.
Lets take 'Davos'. I attended three officially designated "PreDavos in Saudi" conferences in 2008-2010. Same speakers, sponsors, subjects as the one @nytimes today said marked MBS' big break with the past. same idea: woo investors, clean KSA's image. the difference: Abdullah's .
was held in Prince Alwaleed's Kingdom Tower. MBS's in his Ritz. Big, doubtful modernization projects? Abdullah had his science university and grand city planned up the Red Sea coast from Jeddah. To rival Dubai he tried building a financial center in Riyadh.
MBS' NEOM is more of the same. Well-paid Foreign consultants saying it will work, doubting foreign participants money-wise -- so Aramco will pay for it -- and construction companies close to the royal-family in power waiting for the contracts. Tenants? "They will come."
So what's the difference between the two? First, MBS has embarked on things a wiser, more experienced Abdullah wouldn't have done, like heavily expanding the Yemen war, and opening a campaign against Qatar....
Sec. MBS also harshly alienated at least half of the royal family, creating an enemy base. King's are supposed to be, first, unifiers. Third difference: Abdullah struggled with the US, especially Obama, on politics...,
but on counter-terror, Prince Nayef and his son MBN were very tight with the Americans. With MBS, MBN has disappeared along with some other US allies in the regime, BUT the Trump admin is all on board with MBS whatever. last difference? ....
Abdullah jailed domestic dissidents but didn't kidnap them abroad. MBS did, and has now, apparently, killed one: Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist Abduallah only had fired. ###
