Brexit endgame: based on what the UK govt is now defiantly saying that it cannot under any circumstances accept, we can already figure out the final shape of the backstop deal that will be reached by negotiators. (It will be in November after further kabuki.) (MINI-THREAD 1/4)
Here's what the UK govt is saying it can't accept:
- "customs border down the Irish Sea" and

- UK "cannot be kept in the backstop indefinitely”.

Plus there must be "a mechanism to clearly define how that backstop will end”.

And here's what will be agreed, based on this...
Final backstop will be:
- all UK in customs union & Single Market for goods only & also committed to level-playing field rules
- UK able to withdraw subject to 2-3 years' notice (protects Ireland from possibility that UK gains leverage with threat of sudden departure).
Not so different from what I predicted back in June. Everybody told me then that I was wrong: "There's no way the EU will drop FoM," everybody cried.

We'll see...

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