Thread by @Usherwood

As we hear from @NegotBrexit colleagues, some thoughts about EU27 views on Brexit:

1/

After immediate shock of #EUref result, most MS weren't that engaged.

COM/EUCO had a clear plan and w/o Art.50 notification, so no immediate danger

2/

Those with obvious concerns (IE, NL, etc.) got good access to that EU plan, plus uploading of interests therein, so strengthening buy-in to EU unity

3/

As such, for many MS, Brexit was initially an opportunity to burnish EU credentials and to gain some spoils (eg agency relocation, changes to budget/MFF)

4/

After notification, this continued, in part because onus widely seen to be on UK to advance proposals

5/

Only in last few months has interest ramped up across MS, as decisions loom larger and move towards talk of future EU-UK relations, where MS preferences are more varied

6/

However, strong success of opening phases has meant that buy-in to EU/Barnier approach remains v.high, which will matter for sign-off and ratification

7/

Also worth noting our network reports almost complete failure of UK charm offensives and divide/conquer strategy: only partial success in HU as means to help on Art.7 situation

7/

So overall, Ms are largely where they've always been, because of low local salience for most, effective EU action and lack of successful UK efforts to defect

/end

More info here: blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2018/…