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Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
NEW POLL: Hanbury strategy polling for Politico snap verdict on the budget.
Top line People back spending more now vs balancing the books by 56% to 12%
NEW POLL 2: Voters agree with spending more on the NHS even if that means less for other public services by 57% to 14% (Hanbury strategy for Politico)
NEW POLL 3: More people think it's a good budget for their family (32.5%) than bad (11%) but most people (56%) think it's neither good nor bad (Hanbury for Politico)
NEW POLL 4: Here's the bad news for Hammond. 52% do not buy his argument on Brexit no deal. 1/3 voters don't believe it will lead to less money for public. 1/5 think even if it does lead to less money it's a price worth paying. Which together is > the 48% who think it is not
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1) Here is Bernard Jenkin accusing me of making up stories And here is Bernard Jenkin threatening to withdraw his support from his own government in a Tory WhatsApp group yesterday
2) One member of the ERG I spoke to on Friday was involved in a phone call involving at least three people. Is that a conference call?
3) The discussions involved when and how to vote against their own government to demonstrate the strength of the ERG. The budget votes were targeted since they are important and have to happen to keep the money flowing
Read 7 tweets

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#New Traders, Understand #Mathematics Of #Profit In Market Before You Put Hard #Earned Money On Risk.

Expectancy = Success Rate x Reward Risk Ratio

Lets Talk About Expectancy Of Short Term Directional Trading System.

Read On (1/n)
Success Rate = No Of Profitable Tades/ No Of Loss Making Trades

Reward Risk Ratio = Average Profit Per Trade / Average Loss Per Trade

If Success Rate is 0.5 and Reward Risk 2, Then

Expectancy = 2 x 0.5 =1

For Making Profit, Expectancy Should Be Positive Number (2/n)
To Calculate Expectancy, You Need Defined System With Rules To Get Success Rate and Reward Risk. If You Have No System To Take Decisions, You Are Hanging In Thin Air and Will Never No Whether You Will Keep Making Or Loosing Money In Future (3/n)
Read 12 tweets
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#VS-Mitarbeiter erzählt im #NSUUA, dass in der Auswertung zwischen "Neonazis" und "NPD" unterschieden wurde. Wer also aus den Freien Kräften kommt und in die NPD eintritt, wird nicht mehr unter "Neonazi" geführt.
So klingt die Zahl der Neonazis gleich ein bisschen besser ☝️
Gleich wurde übrigens mit "Überläufern" von organisierter Kriminalität und Neonazis bzw NPD verfahren, obwohl VS-Mitarbeiter selbst Fall nennt, in dem jemand aus Türsteher/Rockerszene auch im NPD-Ordnungsdienst aktiv war. #nsuuath
Noch mehr Hits: Mitarbeiter war zuständig für NPD-Vorstand, also auch für Thorsten Heise, aber nicht für dessen Musikvertrieb, zb von dem Song "Dönerkiller", in dem schon vor der Selbstenttarnung des Kerntrios die Mordserie des #NSU besungen wurde. #nsuuath
Read 8 tweets
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I have been battling a new health crisis since my surgery was postponed June 15.

There is no way to adequately articulate--even as a writer--the breadth of hardship inflicted on sick Americans by the Trump presidency & Trump-led #GOP, like lame-duck @SpeakerRyan.
#healthcare
1/
The @CDCgov cites 133M as the number of chronically-ill Americans who have #cancer, like I do, or another illness that impedes their daily lives.

The majority of that 40% of the US population still have to work despite often disabling illness because we cannot afford not to.
2/
I've been writing about #healthcare in America since I was a cub reporter and put on a small story in the mid-80s that turned into a much bigger story: #AIDS.

When you're in your 20s writing about other 20somethings dying, it changes you.

Then I got #breastcancer at 26.
3/
Read 19 tweets
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#NEW on ARC2020: #CAP & #MFF | Eco-Spin without Public Goods Substance.
Its been 2 weeks since the MFF proposals, here's our round up of some of the perspectives so far.
All perspective-givers tagged in picture.
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
What's needed?
@davidbaldock & Allan Buckwell of @IEEP_eu:
1: Sufficient funding for environmental measures in Pillar 1
2: Specifics for New Delivery Model
3: Flexibility for Pillar 1 to 2 transfers
4. Fund ANCs under Pillar 1
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
#MFF #FutureofCAP #CAP
And who said: "unconditional direct income support to farmers is manifestly absurd in today’s world when it maintains uncompetitive farming practices that have negative implications for the climate, the environment or people’s health"?
Why @AnnikaAhtonen of @epc_eu
Read 8 tweets
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#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets
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😱😱#poll #thread😱😱

🔥Thread of poll for🔥

'THE THIRTY DARK SECRET'
1. Cheated in relationships 🙊
2. Caught red-handed😂
Read 26 tweets

Trending hashtags

#AmericaFirst #Carnivore #FutureofCAP #PlantBasedDiet #Q2417 #Q2582 #NoDeals #media #AuditTheFed #WeThePeople #UFOS #IranianProtests #Traitor #Justice #DarkToLight #NotDirectedAtYou #HOOAH #USA #NationalEmergency #NoName #thedarkeningage #SpeakerOfHouse #poll #Schiff #BorderSecurity

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