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Edwin Hayward @uk_domain_names
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Any time someone airily waves a hand, and says "Of course the UK will be able to get better trade deals after Brexit", consider the below... (Remember too that typical trade negotiations take 3-5+ years, based on the experience of the US, Australia, NZ, China and India.)
Here's more information about how long typical trade negotiations take to conclude, with a great deal of statistical data...
open-britain.co.uk/new_research_t…
And here's the breakdown of the EU's currently open trade negotiations...
trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…
Even at its reduced growth rate, China's GDP is growing so fast that it will add the equivalent of the UK's entire GDP in just over 3 years. That's why we need the EU. We are minnows swimming with sharks when it comes to post-Brexit trade negotiations!
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This is a radio ad the Government has started running as part of its no deal Brexit preparations...

It directs people to a nice website with warm and fuzzy graphics...

And as soon as you go deeper, you're thrown into the opaque preparedness notices.
euexit.campaign.gov.uk
That's like flying a sky banner saying "Roll up. Learn the secrets of the Universe" then handing people a copy of Stephen Hawking's "A Brief History of Time".

Utterly, utterly bonkers. And as much use as a bun at a bear fight.
(If you missed the link to the "helpful" website further up this thread, here it is again...)

euexit.campaign.gov.uk
Read 3 tweets
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A few thoughts on alternatives to Brexit...
- Bring in proportional representation
- Cancel HS2 and spend the tens of £billions on improving *regional* rail and other transport links
- Turn the HOL into an entirely elected second chamber (its oversight function is useful)
- Recognise the merit of a booming economy in London and the SE. Celebrate it and nurture it. Then milk the cash cow and spread that delicious cream across the whole of the UK.
- Foster an entrepreneurial mentality that rewards a "British Dream" (parallels to the American Dream)
- End the culture of secrecy in Government, except in cases of genuine national security. Transparency and accountability at every level. Shine a bright light into the darkest corners.
- Set up a "regional sifting committee" to vet all large infrastructure projects to ensure that
Read 7 tweets
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Government is trying to foist the blame for any Brexit chaos in the adult social care sector off on local authorities and directors of adult social care facilities. This from the letter sent to them on 21 December last year... (Full letter at link below.)
gov.uk/government/pub…
More from the letter:
" Many of these issues will have either a direct or indirect impact on councils and it is also possible that they will have a financial consequence for providers."
More from the letter (doubling down on the "legal" bit):
"I encourage you to work closely with your adult social care providers, in line with your legal market shaping duties, to assure yourself that any impact on providers can be managed locally."
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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SO. #Brexit boils down to how - or if - the UK can ever leave the dreaded Irish backstop.

There is talk of a "review mechanism". So what might that be? How might it work?

Some thoughts after chats with both sides + experts 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Let's start from the point of agreement.

Both sides say backstop is
a) necessary
b) temporary
c) should be superseded by future relationship

So there does need to be what one EU source calls an "unwinding" mechanism. /2
The problem (before we get to the detail of that mechanism) is that no-one can see what version of the Future Relationship can deliver on UK commitment to no return to a hard border in Ireland.

May's dual tariff or 'MaxFac' unicorns are dead. /3
Read 17 tweets
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UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
Read 31 tweets
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1/ Very small thread on why many people (including me) have been getting #Brexit wrong. We've been blinded by the theatre & complex issues of the "EU negotiations" - but in fact its much simpler than that....indeed.....
2/ #Brexit "EU negotiations" are not in any significant way actually taking place, & to the extent that that they are at a minor level even these are largely irrelevant. Once I grasped this everything else of the last 12 months made sense.....
3/ The political establishment whether Corbyn's Labour or May's Conservatives (& indeed much of the political media) are, contrary to the breathless reporting of BBC etc, largely unconcerned with the concrete nature of the EU process (not negotiations) of #Brexit. For 2 reasons..
Read 12 tweets
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UK position paper on transition has leaked here: assets.bwbx.io/documents/user…

First major discussion point is of course that UK wants #Brexit transition to last until new relationship is in place.

3 things to learn from that:
a) A sense of realism is taking hold in Westminster on #Brexit. As long argued, a time limited transition is dangerous esp. for the UK, as it creates a new cliff edge. There is very little chance of a fully fledged future relationship negotiated, agreed and fully ratified by 2021
b) The EU strategy of making the UK ask for an extension has worked. If the EU had proposed this, it would have seemed like it wants to keep the UK close indefinitely.

Now it is clear that it is the UK, for economic reasons, that needs this potentially very long transition
Read 4 tweets
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1. Worst national leadership in my lifetime forcing through the most damaging, misguided & missold policy I can remember. Ideology & vested self interest replace statesmanship, soundbites replace sound judgement & autocracy subverts democracy.
#Brexit harms us irreparably #FBPE
2. A flawed Leave campaign based on lies, deceit, disingenuity & over simplification & a #Remain one fought w/o any positivity from the Govt & no real commitment from Labour, whose leader was virtually AWOL, did no justice to #Brexit complexity & betrayed our democratic process.
3. A mere 37% of voters/26.5% of the Ppl voted leave in a legally Non-Binding test of public opinion which has been corrupted, on the basis of an illegitimate political promise & interpreted as being the irrefutable Will of the Ppl.
The 1st is insufficient to claim the latter!
Read 39 tweets

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#Brexit #4b #11a #3a #Trump #2b #TrumpRussia #brexit #livestream #Lexit #Ireland #FF #FBPE #leavernow #brextasy #peaceprocess #lextasy #citizensrights #StopBrexit #EUWithdrawalBill #GE2017 #inLimbo #9b #55TuftonSt #EUCO

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