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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Considered take on Jo Johnson resignation 30 minutes on - that's the end of any chance of the Conservative Party having a largely united position on Brexit. Any solution now depends on substantial Labour Party support.
So Labour's current Brexit priority is a General Election. Presume that doesn't happen, do they support a Brexit deal or another referendum? That is now the crucial question. Here's one answer...
Number 10 have gone into bunker mode. But they must surely know that they now definitely do not command a majority in the House of Commons on Brexit (they have never had a majority in the Lords on the subject)
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A win for the Conservative anti no-deal party. Now how do the Conservative no-deal party react knowing that in the event of rejecting the PM's deal the numbers may exist to withdraw Article 50?
The instant judgement that this defeat is bad for the PM is I think wrong.

Most or all of the rebels today will vote for her deal, she now has a clear threat to use against ERG rebels - this deal or no Brexit.
fwiw I would say the chances of no-deal Brexit have now crashed and the chances of the PM's deal or similar gone up to perhaps 50%. But the chances of no-Brexit are also strengthening, given the PM's ability to be her own worst enemy
Read 4 tweets
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Am bored of reading the conventional wisdom that the EU could not renegotiate Brexit, and to make this case will borrow the wisdom of one of our most experienced MEPs @RCorbettMEP - this is how it COULD happen (and why it probably won't)
There is no more important Brexit job for MPs in the coming two months than to build consensus - something those more astute than the PM realised some time ago. Future relationship talks with a split Parliament could not succeed.
(The @RCorbettMEP article extracted earlier - labourlist.org/2019/01/richar…)
Read 3 tweets
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The Government may have informally asked the EU about an Article 50 Extension - we presume not for any serious reason (no-deal prep, election, referendum) but in the vague hope this somehow helps the PM's deal pass Parliament
Under three months from leaving the EU by law and we have a Government without a plan.
It is not clear that the UK Government has learned anything about negotiating with the EU over the past two and a half years
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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1) Options available on #Brexit - thread
To try to help out with understanding I'm going to go for the simplest explanation I can of the options in front of the country re A50, Deals available etc based on my understanding

Here goes
2) briefly to begin with, there are 3 #Brexit options & 2 Article 50 options
Brexit options:
- No deal
- May's deal
- Remain

Article 50
- Revoke A50
- Delay A50

3 routes to Remain
- GE with a Labour Remain ticket
- 2nd Ref with a Remain option
- Revoke A50 via vote in HoP
3) Revoke A50
can be revoked by the UK alone, without agreement of the EU & we go back to the *exact* same deal we have now (rebate, no Euro etc)

However it must be a revoke in "good faith", we revoke because we are staying indefinitely, not as a pause whilst we have a rethink
Read 22 tweets
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1) Lilico - the intellectual wing of the #Brexit movement
Warning, could be a long thread!

@andrew_lilico is in the spotlight today for a fairly dispicable tweet which I won't repeat here.

But Lilico is also a "leading" Brexit economist who put together an interesting article
@andrew_lilico 2) here is the article in question, from April 2017, and is a great example of what brexiters were selling us before reality set in & they desperately pivoted from full on "we can have it all" cakeism to "no deal? No biggie" snake oil

reaction.life/seven-key-brit…
@andrew_lilico 3) in the article he lays out 7 "perspectives", 7 British viewpoints all based on the "they need us more than we need them" trade deficit

Below is my take on those 7 perspectives, which were arrogant then but utterly ludicrous 20 months later

musealoudblog.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/sev…
Read 16 tweets
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1) #Brexit - who's to blame? These guys, no-one else

You cannot advertise unicorns, win a slim majority & expect to hold that majority when you deliver donkeys

Vote Leave won the vote & destroyed #Brexit at the same time - thread
2) Why is the end result of Brexit this ridiculous fudge? What went wrong? The answer is simple - it wasn't May, or the EU, or the establishment, or filthy Remainers - it was Gove, Johnson, Stuart & all the happy clappy Vote Leave/Leave.EU crowd who ensured it would fail.
3) it wasn't just the £350m on the Bus, it was the consistent Brexit hyping - Brexit would be easy, they needed us more than we needed them, we'd get full access to the SM whilst leaving it, we had a massive defecit, of course the EU would do a deal

Brexit wouldn't cost a penny
Read 12 tweets
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So the ticklish moment awaits.

Consistent with @tombradby am told #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement texts were in London overnight, came back to Brussels this morning. That they are not finally closed, but the EU is "waiting for verdict" to decide next steps. /1
@tombradby Seems like, per @Steven_Swinford
there are still one or two small areas to fix.

But we wait for Cabinet to be called to decide, essentially, if the 'review mechanism' for the Irish backstop really does create some kind of 'exit clause' for UK.

Cabinet set high bar on this../2
@tombradby @Steven_Swinford Interesting that @rte is quoting EU officials saying they don't expect a deal this week.

So we should discount possibility that Cabinet says 'no'. Although the self-imposed pressure for a Nov 24-25 EU Summit is strong. /3
Read 16 tweets
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UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
Read 31 tweets
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Having spent two years remoaning about #brexit I have now quit complaining as I now see there are tremendous opportunities from leaving the European Union which will be embraced globally thread
Patrick Minford of economists for #brexit has stated that #brexit will mean the virtual end of UK manufacturing therefore many European countries will enjoy a relocation windfall
The great repeal Bill allows ministers to make ammend and unmake law without parliamentary approval meaning a huge #brexitopportunity opportunity for corrupt ministers to apply market mechanisms to political decision making
Read 17 tweets

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