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A number of people have asked me to recount in more detail the show-of-hands poll of Canadians that I took during a panel about risk at the @CAASA4u Conference in Montréal on November 6, 2018 (caasa.ca/2018/08/23/caa…). Here it is: 1/10
I asked the attendees to raise their hands if they were Canadian, explaining that by Canadian I meant that they were born somewhere else but live in Canada, were born in Canada but now live somewhere else or have lived in Canada all of their life. 2/10
Most in the room raised a hand (conservatively 60 people, but probably significantly more). I then asked those with their hands raised to keep them raised if they wanted a common currency with the United States. 3/10
Most of the raised hands went down immediately and without hesitation, leaving 3 hands raised. The Canadians overwhelmingly rejected a currency union with the U.S. in favor of their own currency, central bank and independent monetary policy. 4/10
The conference attendees were investment professionals who employ the most sophisticated strategies when they invest, understand the functioning of financial markets and economies and can evaluate rationally the costs and benefits of a currency union; 5/10
The almost unanimous, informed rejection of a common currency, central bank and monetary policy and the overwhelming support for Canadian national sovereignty is consequential. 6/10
I made explicit the reasoning behind their thinking: Canadians know that going into a common currency with the United States would destroy their unique cultural, social and political identity; they do not want that. 7/10
I next said that while I did not want to diminish the political, cultural and social differences between Canada and the U.S.A., they are probably the two most similar countries in the world; I saw many heads nod in agreement. I followed with two simple questions: 8/10
“If Canada and the U.S., the two most similar countries in the world, don’t want to have a common currency, central bank and monetary policy, what are Greece and Italy doing in a monetary union with Germany?” and "what does this tell us about the future of the euro?”. 9/10
I then quoted Rodrik's trilemma (rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_w…) in order to point out that since they had just rejected more globalization in favor of democracy and national sovereignty, they should not be surprised if the countries of Europe are doing so as well. 10/10
