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Faisal Islam @faisalislam
, 8 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Brexiters already queuing up in Lobby to flame the deal @BorisJohnson to our @KateEMcCann
“This is just about as bad as it could poss be... UK remaining in the customs union.. and we haven’t even managed to protect the Union..” if reports right...
Boris Johnson tells @KateEMcCann on @skynews “Govt in Dublin would have more say over governance of N Ireland in some matters than London...Cabinet shd chuck it out” if reports on deal right
This has the air of what the Brexiters did to David Cameron’s renegotiation from February 2016... trying to kill it before it has even landed
And here is Jacob Rees Mogg saying that Mrs May has accepted that the UK will become a “not a vassal state but a slave state”
Cabinet minister Scottish Secretary David Mundell - “I’m encouraged, negotiators have worked incredibly hard to get to this point but we need to look at the detail”
The Chief Whip speaks! A rare occasion at gates of Downing Street...
“cab ministers will look at it tomorrow
And I’m confident we’ll get this through Parliament and we can deliver on what the PM committed”
Transport Secretary Grayling tells @BethRigby for “moment of reflection” and “calm” and for everyone to read the deal before judging it. Echoed by VC @JamesCleverly
Our team catches up with the Development Secretary Penny Mordaunt - not exactly fizzing with enthusiasm “I’m not saying anything...”
will you be considering your position? “No I think these are discussions for Cabinet and should remain confidential”
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More from @faisalislam see all

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EU sources say there will be “no summit” and there are “no actual talks”, some discussions on reassurances. Another diplomatic source tells me even those will not come before the vote next week. /1
Still not entirely sure whether the Meaningful Vote debate that resumes tomorrow will be the continuation of the one curtailed last month or a new one. Former more likely. Would have to make special provision for previous speakers to speak again /2
Tory MPs who attended the Downing St drinks were expecting a bit of a rousing unity speech from PM - surprised there wasn’t one at all even “none of you will be back here” type cajoling. On the way out none I spoke to had changed mind.
Read 4 tweets
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22 Tory MPs including PPSs, trade envoys, grandees among 209 MPs signing joint cross party letter from Caroline Spelman/Jack Dromey “must not crash out of EU without a deal. We urge the Government to agree a mechanism that would ensure a ‘No Deal’ Brexit could not take place”
... Tory 22 include Spelman, Boles, Soames, Letwin, Vaizey, Keegan, ex Trade Minister Garnier, Trade Envoy R Graham... more than enough rebels to win vote. As opposing No Deal is manifesto policy of Labour, LDs, Plaid, SNP and Greens it seems highly likely there’s a Commons maj..
At this stage the 209 MPs are
162 Labour,
22 Tory,
18 SNP,
5 Lib Dem
and 4 Plaid.

“we had to send a clear message tomorrow before a fortnight of key debates commencing on Tuesday with the Finance Bill” said one signatory.
Read 7 tweets
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Ramsgate port approach now being dredged (NB by a Dutch dredger) in preparation for the potential taxpayer-funded ferry service to Ostend as a part alternative to anticipated No Deal Brexit blockages on the main Dover-Calais / Channel Tunnel routes
Meanwhile the first stages of “Operation Fennel” which we reported last month are now taking place - @TomBoadle has obtained this DfT letter about live testing Manston Airport Monday as another lorry park, in addition to 13 miles of M20 AND the M26 for No Deal Brexit disruption
Here is Operation Fennel - storing 10,000 cross channel lorries - the 5000 headed for Dover Port at Manston and 2000 For Eurotunnel on the M20 with a further 2000 on the M26 and then potentially stage 5 is for storage outside of Kent, if all that gets full...
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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1/ Another customs thread. This time on #customs formalities and #Backstop . Backstop envisages a #customsunion with simplifications. It mentions that a movement certificate, A.UK, will be required. No mention of customs declarations.
2/ Movement certificate demonstrates that goods are eligible for trade under a customs union. Is certified by e.g. a Chamber of Commerce. Declarations do more than that. They are entered into the national customs system and enable customs authorities to collect customs data.
3/ Much more info on a declaration than on a movement cert. Some of the most important fields include commodity code, value of goods, country of origin and customs procedure. Would imagine the UK would still like to collect this data for various reasons even under backstop.
Read 9 tweets
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On #customs formalities and documentation under various #Brexit scenarios. Procedures and documentation required for customs clearance can be confusing. Particularly, the difference between a single market and a customs union seems to be unclear. /1
Under different Brexit scenarios there will be different customs formalities and supporting documentation traders will need to complete/ provide for customs clearance (from an upcoming blogpost): /2
This is a simplified view - additional formalities are required depending on the type of goods (e.g. agricultural, excise) and other supporting documentation may be needed (e.g. licenses, certificates, value declaration, insurance docs, tariff quota docs etc). /3
Read 5 tweets
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UK amb. in Geneva @JulianUNWTO updates @CommonsIntTrade this morning on UK status in @wto. Includes an account of how he & DIT Chief Trade Negotiation Adviser Crawford Falconer met WTO Secretariat to discuss what would be needed. Also quotes @VangelisVNZ

goo.gl/rndzEH
1. He says: all going according to plan, starting with technical rectification & then to Art.28 negotiations on tariff quotas allows the UK to have a separate process from the EU's (I'm not sure that's right).

Art.28 will definitely go beyond next March

goo.gl/rndzEH
2. If UK stays in a customs union with the EU in transition, it can still use EU28 TRQs during the transition. Stresses UK wants to avoid disruption to anyone's trade.

A lot of discussion on the health the WTO

goo.gl/rndzEH
Read 5 tweets
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Next week in #UK @POTUS will have dinner with @theresa_may and business leaders, according to @10DowningStreet.
During the #UK visit @POTUS will also hold talks with @theresa_may at her manor house and meet Queen Elizabeth at Windsor Castle, according to @10DowningStreet.
Also according to @10DowningStreet, @POTUS will make a "private visit" to #Scotland.
Read 15 tweets
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Two years after the EU referendum what do we know?
1. The promises of the ‘easiest trade deal in history’, ‘we will hold all the cards’, ‘the exact same benefits’ and ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ have all foundered on the rock of reality
2. The Cabinet is still arguing over what kind of customs arrangements it wants with the EU
3. There is no workable proposal yet to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland
4. British businesses exporting to the EU don't know what to plan for which is why many support the UK remaining in a customs union
5. We still have no idea what our future relationship will be on security, foreign policy, data, approval of medicines and consumer safety
Read 5 tweets
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So #BorisJohnson and friends are not signed up to €40bn-€60bn #BrexitBill - as we reported

Does that matter? Are they right to be cautious? Where are May/Davis/DexEU on this? Where are the EU? 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/1…
First the bill.

In Florence speech May made two commitments.

1) No EU member will "pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan" (2014-2020) - so UK pays 2 x €10bn - viz €20bn to fill hole in current EU budget left by Brexit /2
2) "The UK will honour commitments we have made during the period of our membership."

Mrs May did NOT specify what this mean. The EU wants to know.

Given EU emphasis on filling 2014-2020 budget hole, the UK had 1) would be enough for 'sufficient progress'. It wasn't. /3
Read 16 tweets

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