1. With all the attention being given to the Northern Ireland backstop, let’s not forget that we still have no idea what kind of long-term economic relationship we will have with the EU.
2. The reason why is because the Government’s red lines, including leaving the customs union and the single market, have completely boxed it in.
3. The PM has ruled out a Canada-style deal because it wouldn’t keep the Northern Ireland border open as it is now and would not keep the kind of friction-free trade that many businesses rely on.
4. The other possibility - staying in the customs union and the single market - is ruled out by the Prime Minister’s red lines. And the Chequers proposals have been rejected by the EU.
5. So the reason why the ‘deal’ will probably find it hard to win approval in the House of Commons is because it will offer no indication of where we are heading.
6. For businesses, despite the transition period, that means continuing uncertainty. And that is bad for investment, jobs and tax revenue.
7. It’s not that a different approach is not possible - it still is. It’s just that the Government has failed over two and a half years to make that choice. And that’s why their approach is bad for our future.
