Fact, fiction and speculation in Brexit negotiations. A brief thread aiming at clarity given that there seems to be rather a lot of confusion about, and media stories are often not helping 1/
Start point. What is currently on offer from the EU. An FTA negotiation. Conditional on the Withdrawal Agreement containing a backstop that ensures no border on the island of Ireland. This is what the EU believes is realistic based on UK red lines 2/
The UK has responded with a proposal for a temporary customs arrangement so the backstop is not just for Northern Ireland. It has recognised this paper will need to be supplemented by one on regulatory arrangements 3/ assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Still on facts, the EU responded to this paper with some slides that made it clear the UK paper was unsatisfactory, and there were many questions unanswered 4/ ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
It is now rumoured that the UK Government will make a move on alignment with the single market on goods, presumably for the long term relationship, and the Commission will reject on the basis of the indivisibility of the four freedoms. However well sourced, this is speculation 5/
Insofar as we can tell the UK has not previously put forward a serious proposal on the long term economic relationship with the EU, including customs partnership and max fac. We believe the EU would find them unacceptable. But this is all speculation as well 6/
Similarly suggestions that the Commission is keeping secrets from Member States in the negotiation is speculation, but based on experience of such things, veering towards fiction. The Commission is the negotiator, not the Member States - that is fact 7/
It is also a fact that the EU has in the past shown flexibility towards the implementation of the four freedoms, e.g. with Switzerland and Turkey. But only speculation what that means for the UK, similarly whether money or security cooperation could be useful 8/
We now know that there will be a UK White Paper which the Cabinet will be asked to agree. Until we see the content and understand whether this will be formally presented to the EU we don't know what will change in the negotiations 9/
Final point. What Brexit means and whether this or that option reflects this and has a majority in Parliament are obviously speculation. As are resignations. But in terms of the negotiations frankly a sideshow to the UK-EU dynamic, which is what we should be examining 10/ ends
