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Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Brexit latest – EU27 ambos were provided an update this evening:

- focus is on future relationship. 3 main issues:

1) fish (some background: buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…)
2) Gibraltar
3) Goods: UK wants reference to frictionless trade (but you have friction outside single market)
- talks will be continuing tonight

- the expectation is that the final text will be more than 20 pages

- the UK has yet to reply on transition extension date beyond 2020 (proposal is end 2022 at the latest)
Next steps - it's all quite tight:

- Talks continuing tonight
- Juncker-May meeting tomorrow afternoon (hoping to conclude the text after that, but far from certain)
- EU27 ambos meet again Thursday morning
- Sherpas Friday
- EUCO Sunday morning
Finally, the overarching framework for the relationship *could* end up being an association agreement. There is also an "evolution clause", meaning EU positions could change in future if UK red lines change.
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More from @AlbertoNardelli see all

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Brexit. Things are getting worse.

1. The withdrawal agreement is needed regardless of the shape of the future relationship. The withdrawal agreement on the table, including the backstop, will not be renegotiated. EU27 cannot be clearer on this point – and this is the key point.
2. Throughout these negotiations, so many problems have been created by N10’s inability & unwillingness to set realistic expectations, explain tradeoffs and communicate clearly. As the PM runs out of road, the confusion over the withdrawal agreement is the latest example
3. The political declaration allows for a full spectrum of future options, but it is not clear what kind of relationship the UK wants. This will require a proper debate on tradeoffs (and years of negotiation). However, whatever that option: you need the withdrawal agreement
Read 7 tweets
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About last night:

1) May went to the meeting seeking legally-binded assurances with half-baked proposals to placate hard Brexiteers & DUP

These have been rejected repeatedly for obvious reasons. Backstop is an insurance policy not “a trap.” Not EU27 problem many MPs ignore this
2) May was asked by several leaders, and, I am told, most emphatically by Chancellor Merkel: 'what is it that you want?'

The prime minister was unable to provide an answer to this question with any precision.
That is where May is at in a nutshell: Nearly two years after triggering article 50, the UK does not have an answer to the question, "what do you want?"

There are also concerns that the UK – across the political spectrum – has no idea what kind of future relationship it wants.
Read 7 tweets
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EUCO draft Brexit conclusions: I understand that paragraph 5 (EU stands ready to examine whether any further assurances can be provided..) has gone.
Par. 1, which wasn't in square brackets, is of course unchanged: "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation."
Par 2 unchanged: EU reiterates wish for 'as close as possible partnership.." 'stands ready to embark on prep immediately after signature of WA to ensure negotiations can start asap after withdrawal'. Understand 27 discussed starting prep work on future deal as soon as UK ratifies
Read 12 tweets

Related threads

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Economic consequences of Brexit: some thoughts... #efta #brexit
1/ those who oppose brexit point to the economic risks of a Hard Brexit. We share those concerns and will do everything we can to avoid a Hard Brexit. However, some people say that *any* type of Brexit will be economically damaging.
2/ not surprising with articles such as these in the media that explicitly say that: buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
Read 19 tweets
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EU diplomats shrug at what they view as U.K. hysteria over Canada+ or Chequers #Brexit debate. The EU says the choice was never the UK’s alone 1
EU viewsChequers as a U.K. government position. Not an end in itself. Brussels aim: to navigate between Chequers and EU red lines.. 2
Accusation I often hear in Brussels is that U.K. Brexit negotiators are fine wordsmiths but that there’s often little meaning behind the words 3
Read 19 tweets
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The Chequers plan is dying. May faces rebellion on both sides. She can survive, but not proceed. So what happens next? Some thoughts after chats with both sides.

(Shorter: it's still all about the Irish backstop)

1/Thread
As talks get under way in Brussels today, the EU can:

a) attack - eviscerate Chequers for cherry picking

b) parry - play for time, probe UK real red lines

c) focus on what is deliverable to conclude Withdrawal Agreement in Autumn /2

More here: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
It is the last of these where smart money lies. Chequers is dying anyway and is a 'future relationship issue'.

The focus is delivering a divorce treaty by 29.03.19 and for this most of work is done.

Except the backstop.... /3
Read 18 tweets
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1) Megathread - Yes, the #Brexit vote is illegitimate, and it's not elitist to say so

Simply put, a vote that is based on misconceptions and illusions but which *cannot* be reversed is an affront to democracy therefore the very concept of the referendum is illegitimate
2) So why was the #Brexit vote illegitimate? Well, broadly speaking:
1) The Brexit we "voted for" ends FoM, the ECJ & payments to EU
2) This will be severely damaging to the economy & jobs
3) If the public was asked today the same question but were told the above,Remain would win
3) Leave simply would not win if the costs of the #Brexit they promised were revealed honestly in a second referendum. The only way they could win is if these costs were obscured again

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
Read 13 tweets
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THREAD (1) When the likes of Hannan feel the need to 'brush off' something so critical to the right-wing/neo-con #Brexit wet dream, we find digging a little deeper to be useful. After all, ground breaking 'shadow trade deals' with right-wing US think tanks is no small fish.
(2) In fact, given the growing negativity surrounding the #Brexit negotiations, compounded by the Govts' own damning economic analysis, one would have thought Hannan and Fox et al, would be shouting from the roof tops about their bespoke 'shadow US-UK trade deal.' Wouldn't you?
(3) The problem for our intrepid trade deal making duo, as almost always, is to be found in the detail; just what are, and who is, behind these neo-con US think tanks? Perhaps Daniel would enlighten us?
Read 21 tweets
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#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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