Thread by @Usherwood

How I'm envisaging the next fortnight:

1/

I'll start by assuming most, but not all, MPs have an idea of how they'll vote on the Meaning Vote on 11/12

2/

That's because the volume has been so high for so long, and so many have been pushed to make public statements, that there is less space for indifference/wait-and-see

3/

With that in mind, the coming weeks will see a ton of content raining down, to try and make the case of the different causes

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1067680856037355520

4/

Most of that will not have a measurable effect on those MPs who have decided

partly because of prior commitments to positions
partly because of confirmation bias

5/

Today's yet another example of that: either you think this just confirms the economic madness of leaving, or you think it shows how desperate the gvt to cook up some figures

(yes, you could also think both those things)

6/

If economics doesn't do it (despite being the major concern of voters), then other topics are unlikely too, with possible exception of migration

7/

But even on that, once choices are made in a White Paper, someone's going to be unhappy: "this isn't what I voted for", etc

8/

All of which suggests that what movement does occur between now and then will be down to two things:

- how do the few undecideds break?
- what more individual motivations to change position can be found by whips?

9/

I won't even pretend to know how each of those goes, so I leave that to others

However, I will note an underlying issue

10/

The model here, as throughout Brexit, has been getting a majority, not finding a consensus.

I'd suggest that until the latter emerges/is created, we're going to continue finding this a most difficult thing to deal with

/end