The Treasury’s forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong. Take their forecasts for the effects of a Leave vote made in May 2016.
They said that in the 18 months after the referendum the economy would contract by at best 0.1 per cent and at worst 2.1 per cent. Instead, it GREW by 2.8 per cent. This is an error of 4.9% - up to £100 billion.
If Parliament rejects the Government's current proposal, then the Government can press for a Canada+++ free trade deal backed by technical solutions on the Irish border.
If intransigence from Brussels denies this, we should announce an exit on WTO terms and accelerate preparations for such an outcome. We should press for an exit on a Canada+++ free trade basis. If that is denied to us by Brussels intransigence, we'll have to leave on WTO terms.
At this point all the choking tentacles of the EU fall away. No customs union. No backstop. No single market. No denial of new trade deals. No money paid over. No threat to the integrity of the Union.
The task facing the Conservative Party, the governing party, is to deliver the will of the people as set out in June 2016. That means Brexit – and it means a clean Brexit that ensures a decisive break from the influence of a foreign power.
Downing Street and the Treasury will argue they are delivering a clean Brexit. But the facts point in the opposite direction. The Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration are a bogus prospectus.
This proposal will keep Britain in orbit around the EU. We will be nothing more than a satellite state ruled from afar. It is our duty to reject that prospectus and genuinely take back control. conservativehome.com/parliament/201…
