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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Sometimes with scare stories it helps to go to the source "The “disruptive” and the “disorderly” Brexit scenarios are therefore not forecasts for the economy in the event that the UK leaves the EU with no deal and no transition period."
So take the worst case scenario and see if the domestic financial system would survive. Good news, it would. Is this then not actually an entirely sensible bit of planning?
But on my earlier point on media reporting, will this be reported as 'The Bank of England say that no-deal will lead to an 8% fall in GDP per year"?
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Am bored of reading the conventional wisdom that the EU could not renegotiate Brexit, and to make this case will borrow the wisdom of one of our most experienced MEPs @RCorbettMEP - this is how it COULD happen (and why it probably won't)
There is no more important Brexit job for MPs in the coming two months than to build consensus - something those more astute than the PM realised some time ago. Future relationship talks with a split Parliament could not succeed.
(The @RCorbettMEP article extracted earlier - labourlist.org/2019/01/richar…)
Read 3 tweets
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The Government may have informally asked the EU about an Article 50 Extension - we presume not for any serious reason (no-deal prep, election, referendum) but in the vague hope this somehow helps the PM's deal pass Parliament
Under three months from leaving the EU by law and we have a Government without a plan.
It is not clear that the UK Government has learned anything about negotiating with the EU over the past two and a half years
Read 4 tweets
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A modest step forward by those MPs supporting a 'Norway' Brexit - they have a better name than Norway+, we now have Common Market 2.0, also breaking the unwritten Brexit rule that all proposals must be +++ d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/stephenkinnock…
There's not much new here, but mention of our freedom to set agriculture rules doesn't sit well with commitments on the Irish border unless assuming Northern Ireland does not in fact have that freedom, and Irish Sea checks
Biggest problem for EEA supporters remains the opposition of both the Labour leadership and the referendum campaigners. Although a majority of MPs could probably live with an EEA solution it is hard to see us getting there
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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We all know now that #VoteLeaveBrokeTheLaw. We all know that Arron Banks has been referred to the NCA for investigation, after @MetPoliceUK declined to look into the @ElectoralCommUK's evidence. MPs are "calling for a pause" in #Brexit.

theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/n… /1
Unless EU-27 agree to an extension of the two-year #Article50 period, the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019. Theresa May clearly stil hopes for some kind of deal that will keep the City of London happy enough with #Brexit: but #NoDealBrexit is a very real possibility. /2
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Read 18 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Most evaluations of no-deal #Brexit scenarios (e.g. the @iealondon ones) seem to include some emergency last-second treaties between the EU and the UK that would be required. Does this work? People forget there are procedures. Read the thread to learn more.
1) you have probably read numerous comments along the lines of “it’s unrealistic to assume a deal after we haven’t reached a withdrawal agreement”. I’m not writing about that.
2) What I am writing about is procedure. Any treaty the UK and the EU conclude has to be concluded following EU law and procedure. This is what I am writing about.
Read 18 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
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UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
Read 31 tweets

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#prices #economists #VAT #lexiternow #imported #9a #Sanaa #free #CustomsUnion #zones #3b #Regulation #consumers #NHS #customs #October #EEC #Singapore #Brexit #UNSC #technology #importing #11a #AggregateIQ #EU

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