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Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
"MPs are to vote on the Government’s Brexit withdrawal agreement on the 11th December, how would you like MPs to vote?"

Survation: Nov 28
"If there was a referendum tomorrow, with the following options on the ballot paper, which would you support?"

Government's Brexit agreement 35%
No Deal 41%
Don't know 24%
"If there was a referendum tomorrow, with the following options on the ballot paper, which would you support?"

Government's Brexit deal 37%
Remain in EU 46%
Don't know 17%

Leavers break 64% for deal, Remainers 74% for Remain
"If there was a referendum tomorrow, with the following options on the ballot paper, which would you support?"

Leaving with no deal 40%
Remaining in EU 50%
Don't know 11%

Remainers break 83% 'remaining in', Leavers break 79% 'no deal'
"When the government's negotiations over terms of exit are complete, would you support or oppose holding a People's vote - a referendum - asking the public their view?"

Support 48%
Oppose 34%
Don't know 18%

Remainers 58% "support"/30% "oppose"
Leavers 50% "oppose"/42% support
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More from @GoodwinMJ see all

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Prime Minister May's dilemma

How Conservatives would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 25%
V
May Deal 56%

Remain 27%
V
No Deal 63%

May Deal 33%
V
No Deal 51%

1st preference in three-way EURef: Leave with No Deal

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
How Leavers would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 11%
V
May Deal 55%

Remain 13%
V
No Deal 70%

May Deal 19%
V
No Deal 60%

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
How Remainers would vote in 2nd EURef combos

Remain 84%
V
May Deal 6%

Remain 84%
V
No Deal 7%

May Deal 49%
V
No Deal 10%

Don't know/Wouldn't vote excluded
@ProfTimBale / YouGov survey
Read 4 tweets
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What's going to kick off in 2019

I'm late to the p-a-r-t-y
Populists and Eurosceptics will enjoy their strongest election in the history of European Parliament elections at #EP2019 in May
For reasons that I outline here @unherd bit.ly/2ViXw1w
Read 71 tweets
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Happy Christmas Twitter. I have 5 FREE copies of National Populism

First 5 to message me name + address get the book this week

Direct messages open, postage on me

amzn.to/2LkyPgL
all gone
And the winners are
Lewis
Jakob
schnorrerlox
Theo
Jon H
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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In three months the UK plans to exit the EU.
Absent any transition agreement, the UK will become an independent member of the @wto and must ensure its joint WTO commitments are disentangled from the EU.
2/
@wto In order to become an independent @wto member the UK must do 3 things:
I) Re-join the Government Procurement Agreement
II) Submit an independent WTO goods schedule
III) Submit an independent WTO services schedule
3/
@wto I) GPA:
The UK has already taken steps to rejoin the @wto GPA - a $1.7 trillion plurilateral accord that governs public procurement rules among 46 nations.
Details here: bit.ly/2yA8IPk
4/
Read 25 tweets
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How @DailyMailUK twisted the results of @Survation poll and created a nice little frontpage to support Theresa May with some beautiful YESes in red and some lovely supporting words, even though the front page does not actually reflects the results of the poll...
So, let's have a closer look at some of the questions asked and the ACTUAL answers of voters...
Q1. When UK Govt's negotiations over the terms of Britain's exit from #EU are complete, would you support or oppose holding a People's Vote - a referendum - asking the public their view?

- Support 48% 👈
- Oppose 34%
- Don't know 18%

Large margin 14% to support a #PeoplesVote!
Read 18 tweets
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NEW: Commons Leader Leadsom to @SkyNews:

Do you still support the PM?
“I'm absolutely determined to support the prime minister in getting the best posible deal for the UK as we leave the EU.

There is still more to be done and we do still have more time before the EU Council..”
“So, yes, I'm absolutely committed to getting the Brexit that 17.4million people voted” 2/2
Also PM will do her first broadcast interview since the #brexit Withdrawal Agreement live on @SkyNews with @SophyRidgeSky - watch @RidgeOnSunday at 9am tomorrow morning #Ridge
Read 4 tweets
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So the ticklish moment awaits.

Consistent with @tombradby am told #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement texts were in London overnight, came back to Brussels this morning. That they are not finally closed, but the EU is "waiting for verdict" to decide next steps. /1
@tombradby Seems like, per @Steven_Swinford
there are still one or two small areas to fix.

But we wait for Cabinet to be called to decide, essentially, if the 'review mechanism' for the Irish backstop really does create some kind of 'exit clause' for UK.

Cabinet set high bar on this../2
@tombradby @Steven_Swinford Interesting that @rte is quoting EU officials saying they don't expect a deal this week.

So we should discount possibility that Cabinet says 'no'. Although the self-imposed pressure for a Nov 24-25 EU Summit is strong. /3
Read 16 tweets
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#Brexit thoughts this AM. The draft Withdrawal Agreement has a Northern Ireland sub-committee to the Joint Committee and sounds like there's been progress on an arbitration panel for the governance of the treaty = forum to discuss exit from a temporary customs arrangement? (1)
ANOTHER reminder of what @MichelBarnier said about the UK-wide customs idea way back in July. Note the problems he said had to be solved to make it work. europa.eu/rapid/press-re… (2)
And finally, I've now seen FIVE different dates for an extra-special Brexit summit in November. But I've been told that my trip to the German Christmas markets on 1/2 December should be safe! (3
Read 3 tweets
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.@MichelBarnier : "no possibility" of a UK-EU trade being concluded by #Brexit in March 2019. This is not news, even to @DavidDavisMP

So what can UK realistically get next year?

And does that tell us about UK strategy?

1/thread
First. What is possible.

In January talks will resume and the UK will focus on transition. This is DexEU and Treasury focus.

They will strike an early agreement on this, even pushing to find a way to formalise it prior to the Withdrawal Agreement being ratified /2
The EU will likely reject the attempt to formalise transition deal in some early, focusing instead on the following:

- drafting withdrawal agreement
- creating dispute resolution mechanisms on Money etc
- drafting a "political declaration" on trade/future relationship /3
Read 16 tweets

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#Brexit #brexit #PeoplesVote #Irexit #ProjectFear #Remain #Ridge #EU #Art50 #peoplesvote #borderpoll #Article50 #Border #FBPE #Backstop

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