Thread by @bbaschuk

In three months the UK plans to exit the EU.
Absent any transition agreement, the UK will become an independent member of the @wto and must ensure its joint WTO commitments are disentangled from the EU.
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@wto In order to become an independent @wto member the UK must do 3 things:
I) Re-join the Government Procurement Agreement
II) Submit an independent WTO goods schedule
III) Submit an independent WTO services schedule
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@wto I) GPA:
The UK has already taken steps to rejoin the @wto GPA - a $1.7 trillion plurilateral accord that governs public procurement rules among 46 nations.
Details here: bit.ly/2yA8IPk
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@wto In November the UK circulated its final GPA market access offer and GPA members agreed "in principle" to accept the UK's market access offer.
UK's market access offer: bit.ly/2FTQBrQ
More details here: bit.ly/2EWAVlI
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@wto Background: The UK currently participates in the GPA as an EU member but Britain did not independently ratify the agreement.
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@wto Background: The UK must rejoin the GPA as an independent member in order to preserve access to government contracts in member nations, including the $837 billion US market. Each GPA member has the power to block the UK's admittance.
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@wto In Oct., several nations including the US blocked the UK's GPA bid, w/ some saying the British offer was based on a set of outdated and incomplete commitments. The UK then pledged to renegotiate its GPA terms within three months of rejoining the pact.
bloom.bg/2EENKTp
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@wto In Nov. the US said it wouldn't support consensus on a draft decision to invite the UK into the GPA until the EU and the UK clarify whether and to what extent and in what terms the draft decision on the UK's GPA accession should reference the Brexit withdrawal agreement.
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@wto In December the US submitted draft language to address this concern.
Here is the US text: bit.ly/2CGjIeH
The UK said it is willing to accept this language. The EU has not offered public comment on the U.S. language.
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@wto GPA members continue to engage with the EU & UK on the text of the draft GPA decision.
Participants hope a draft decision can be issued by the first week of January and will be adopted at the earliest possible opportunity thereafter.
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@wto Once a draft decision is issued then it will go to capitals of the 19 parties to the agreement who will make a political decision as to whether they will permit the UK to re-join the GPA prior to its exit from the EU. Any member has a veto.
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@wto If any GPA member withholds approval and UK crashes out of the EU w/o a transitional arrangement, British contracting firms will lose preferential access to public procurement markets in Canada, the EU, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea, and the US, among others.
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@wto II) Goods:
The UK has submitted its independent WTO goods schedule - which sets the terms by which @wto members can export their physical goods to the UK after Britain leaves the EU.
Link: bit.ly/2GNqFyD
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@wto The UK will modify its @wto goods schedule according to Article 28 of the GATT, which requires the UK to renegotiate its terms with all WTO members.
The UK said its schedule will form the basis of its trade policy while Britain engages w/ WTO members to address their concerns
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@wto Background: Though the UK is a WTO member in its own right, its schedule of concessions -- which reflect tariff commitments and terms relating to trade in goods and services -- are established in the EU schedule of concessions.
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@wto Background: The UK previously proposed to replicate the EU’s current WTO trade terms after it leaves the bloc. Britain and the EU said they wanted to split their current tariff rate quota commitments that set import limits on sensitive goods such as beef, lamb and sugar.
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@wto Background: In Nov. ~20 WTO members, including the US & China, said they opposed the UK's approach because they said it would harm their ability to sell goods to Europe. Any WTO member may oppose certification of the UK's proposed WTO schedule of concessions for any reason.
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@wto UK Trade Secretary @LiamFox said that the UK can continue to trade on current terms on an uncertified schedule, with no impact on trade flows. However, if the UK does not possess a set of certified WTO commitments it could leave Britain vulnerable to WTO dispute proceedings.
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@wto @LiamFox III) Services:
The UK has submitted its independent WTO services schedule - which sets the terms by which @wto members are able to export services to the UK after it leaves the EU.
Link 1: bit.ly/2SuOQ6s
Link 2: bit.ly/2EXJVrK
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@wto @LiamFox Background: Though the U.K. is a current member of the WTO, its services commitments are enshrined in the EU’s schedule of concessions and Britain must now secure an independent set of commitments after it leaves the EU.
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@wto @LiamFox Similar to the UK's initial goods offer, Britain's services schedule is considered to be a "technical rectification" that replicates, as far as possible, the U.K.’s current services obligations at the WTO.
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@wto @LiamFox WTO members now have until January 17 to review the UK services schedules and raise any objections before the WTO Secretariat may certify them. It is expected that some members will object to the UK's rectification approach and refuse to certify the UK services schedule.
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@wto @LiamFox UK Trade Secretary @LiamFox said if any @wto members refuse to certify the UK’s proposed services schedule, Britain can continue to trade on its current terms "with no impact on trade flows."
Statement link: bit.ly/2RnSwto
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@wto @LiamFox In summary:
The most pressing thing the UK needs to do at the @wto is ensure all GPA members give their formal assent for the UK to rejoin the GPA by March 29. If the UK parliament approves the Brexit withdrawal agreement the GPA timeline will be extended.
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@wto @LiamFox It's unlikely that all @wto members will certify the UK's goods and services schedules by March 29 but the UK can continue to trade on uncertified schedules. If that transpires the UK may be left vulnerable to WTO dispute proceedings.
/END