I feel the need to comment on this because @CitySamuel and I were briefly very aligned on May's 'Deal', suggesting MPs should vote it through. But I then shifted, and now want it voted down. Why? A thread cometh.... /1
The 'take' by Gove and Samuel (and my earlier self) is that the Deal uncouples the UK from political union, exits EU m'ship, closes down Remain, and addresses British politics' view about ending Free Movement. Furthermore.... /2
The UK's EU budget payments will end, it commits us only to a minimal customs union, and although the backstop doesn't have a unilateral exit clause, *in effect* EU & UK will not want it long term due to its deficiencies. The EU may even want it LESS as it serves UK better... /3
Also, May's Deal crucially kicks some cans down the road: it doesn't require us to define the final settlement at this stage which is why the PD appears to keep open various options including potentially 'Canada' and 'Norway'. /4
And finally, the 'take' of Gove and Samuel (and my earlier self) includes a rejection of No Deal because of the damage it would do. In other words, if you want Brexit, May's Deal is *IT*. /5
Now my subsequent issues.
The above 'take' on May's Deal is very optimistic. Some might say 'rose-tinted'. Others might choose 'deluded'. /6
The above 'take' on May's Deal is very optimistic. Some might say 'rose-tinted'. Others might choose 'deluded'. /6
It imagines that, to date, the UK has won significant victories during the negotiations, and also that this victorious run will continue after March such that the final deal will be acceptable to us, not least because the EU is somehow on the backfoot with the backstop. /7
So essentially another outing for "us plucky Brits sticking it to them" and how "they need us more than we need them". Anyone who has watched the detail of these negotiations or the outcome simply cannot objectively come to that conclusion. /8 
The EU has had the upper hand for almost 2 years, despite the UK theoretically holding the threat of No Deal/Walking Away. After March, it will be much worse - even the theoretical threat won't exist. We will have no cards left and will be a sitting duck. /9
My other epiphany on this deal is how the ending of free movement has taken precedence over literally everything else, including proper trade deals around the world, CU arrangements, "frictionless trade", and even sovereignty. /10
This deal doesn't provide for frictionless trade or any special access to the EU/EEA market. We'll see non-tariff barriers aplenty - a Turkey sat on the EU's North West frontier. And we can't easily improve our trade relations with the RoW as goods are 'off the table'. /11
Once this realisation dawns, we'll soon be looking to get improvements into the final deal. But recall who holds all the cards here. The EU will extract a price for every improvement to our hobbled situation. @SamGyimah has already seen what's coming. /12
The backstop will be firmed up by EU during this process. It is not actually hard to envisage the UK ending up in a deeper customs union with a single market overlay, possibly even CFP, CAP...and free movement. Basically EU membership without the membership card and votes. /13
But if you are an optimistic, No-Deal-avoiding Brexiteer, you cannot even consider this because of the logical conclusion it points to - that Brexit has already failed and it'd now be better to cancel the whole thing and Remain. /14
That is why Gove's quaintly optimistic article exists. dailymail.co.uk/debate/article… It is about being seen to win in the face of a looming defeat. And in so doing, mess up Britain's future. /15
