Thread by @Usherwood

Let's try to round up the week in Brexit, shall we?

1/

Personally, the big thing that's struck me is how we're sitting on our hands, waiting for announcements

2/

The core negotiating teams have locked themselves up good and proper during this week, and briefings are being kept to an absolute minimum

3/

Partly that's about demonstrating seriousness (which'll be important when #EUCO makes decisions about that Nov summit next week), partly it's about getting away from the gales of pressure

4/

Front and centre is the DUP. By doubling-down on whatever-today's-version-of-red lines, they are pushing well past the limit of what May might have hoped for from that confidence & supply agt

5/

That says more about May than the DUP, who have extensive form in this kind of thing.

Q is whether DUP has the measure of Westminster/EU in the same way they do Stormont

6/

In particular, even if LAB position is better for them than WA murmurs, do they have a way of getting to that w/o falling into a no-deal that potentially hurts them much more?

7/

Alongside that drama, you also have ERG types still pushing Canada options and being unhappy about elements of the WA compromise

8/

(As an aside, it's still striking how much manages to surprise people in all this, when so much has been out in public for so long) #Shocked

9/

However, main impression is that CON is largely locked into this WA deal coming to a vote, getting through Parliament, then opening up an opportunity to remove May more safely post-29 March

10/

Much hangs on how Art.50 negotiators frame any WA deal in coming days.

Seems that many MPs really don't know what to do about their vote, so May has to be able to sell it to as wide an audience as possible

11/

That points to dropping language of 'Chequers' (as happened in #CFC18 speech), to remove that trigger. If May sticks with it, then I'd be less confident about her chances

11/

But let's see how it goes

/end