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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
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Central calculation behind claim that Vote Leave's overspend won referendum is based on 80m people seeing the ads

Electorate = 46.5m

Even putting aside other 🤔 assumptions, using 46.5m immediately falsifies claim

Top digging by @anthonybmasters
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
More reasons for caution:

1/ 18% of voters deciding in final few days is normal. Often higher in general elex.

2/ Those voters who decided in final days when Leave was overspending broke 53/47 *to Remain*, i.e more Remainy during Leave overspend period than other times.
3/ As @MichaelPBarnett writes, very few people who saw these ads would not already have seen ads for Leave in prior weeks. Stretches credulity to say 800,000 who saw a Leave ad on June 23 made their decision based solely on seeing that ad. marketingweek.com/2018/08/15/vot…
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NEW: @KuperSimon & @emmavj delve into the growing attainment gap between girls and boys in UK schools, and ask how boys can catch up ft.com/content/3b2509…

How bad have things got? A chart thread follows:
(1/3) I dug into the numbers to see when and where boys start falling behind ft.com/content/d53298….

The focus tends to be on exam results, but participation is arguably the bigger issue:

Between 16 and 18, boys are dropping out of the system in huge numbers.
(2/3) The effects are felt at university, where the participation gap between young women and men is getting ever wider.

Last year there were 4 new female students for every 3 males.
Read 10 tweets
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This @nytimes cartogram is getting a lot of deserved praise, but I wanna talk about one particular design choice that is simply genius:

Separating the states from one another.

Why is this such a brilliant decision? A very brief thread:
1/ Cartograms are already abstract. Keeping the states contiguous serves no useful purpose. In fact, it often makes them worse. Weird shapes, adjacency where there is none IRL etc. They become almost impossible to read as actual maps.
2/ With that constraint gone, you can:
a) Label them all directly! Immediately more readable.
b) Exploit the freedom of the newly created white space and labels to position the states so that the whole thing — wait for it — actually resembles a map of the US!
Read 4 tweets
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Morning, #dataviz folks! Here comes a thread on the "streamgraph" chart type used in the @FinancialTimes graphic on Premier League shirt sponsors.

The research paper by @leeb & @wattenberg that introduced streamgraphs to the world is one of the best dataviz papers I've ever read
1/16 In November 2008, @leeb & @wattenberg published "Stacked Graphs – Geometry & Aesthetics", a wonderfully comprehensive discussion of the trade-offs between aesthetics & geometry in stacked graphs leebyron.com/streamgraph/st…
2/ I've been nerding out on key insights & other highlights. Here goes:

Intro: the paper followed 2 early examples of stacked, meandering graphics
- "Listening Histories": last fm listening data (pic 1)
- "The ebb and flow of movies" by @nytgraphics on box office takings (pic 2)
Read 17 tweets

Related threads

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How the internal polling of Stronger In went wrong in 2016 was its turnout assumptions. Leave voters came out to vote in hugely greater numbers than had been anticipated.
We also know that Leave voters didn't turn out in such great numbers in 2017 - they began to revert to norm - and that is one of the reasons the Tories underperformed relative to expectations.
This makes it important to understand who would come out to vote in a putative second referendum. Would Leave voters turn out in force again?
Read 6 tweets
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I estimate that Vote Leave converted the voting intentions of over 800,000 voters in the final days of the campaign as a result of the overspend.”
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
2/. Prof Howard’s report was also based on “separate research which found that 20-30 per cent of people decided how to vote within a week of polling day, with half of these doing so on election day itself. “
3/. ”If, as he has concluded, Vote Leave’s Facebook adverts reached tens of millions of people after they had should have stopped, they influenced huge numbers of voting decisions.”
Read 3 tweets
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I have been rebutting the case for a so-called “People’s Vote” on Twitter for some time and thought it might be useful to draw the points together in a single thread.
#PeoplesVote
First, the name. It’s dumb. What they really mean is, a second vote because we lost the first one. We had a people’s vote already. Who do they think voted last time, fridge magnets?
Anyway… the so-called People’s Vote campaign doesn’t really want another vote - it wants another answer. It is entirely about seeking to stop Brexit.
ft.com/content/bad4d6…
Read 28 tweets
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#VOTE like you remember family separation.

#Vote like you remember Kavanaugh.

#Vote like you remember “Fine people on both sides.”
#Vote like you remember Helsinki.

#Vote like you remember Khizr and Ghazala Khan.

#Vote like you remember the fake Blind Trust.

#Vote like you remember their vow to take away your health care.
#Vote like you remember “alternative Facts.”

#Vote like you remember his tax returns.

#Vote like you remember the dismantling of the EPA.

#Vote LIKE YOU REMEMBER EVERY MEMBER OF THE GOP CONGRESS WHO ALLOWED ALL OF THIS TO HAPPEN.
Read 33 tweets
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45 Days Of @ElvisCostello: a twitter megathread in anticipation of the Oct 12 release date of LOOK NOW, the new LP by Elvis Costello & The Imposters

This is either a bright idea or a brilliant mistake, but this is only, this is only, this is only the beginning...
I did something similar to this 5 years ago, in anticipation of EC & @theroots' Wise Up Ghost LP, on tumblr.

(You can still find all those posts if you look, although a lot of the YouTube links etc are now dead ends. It was 40 Days Of EC then, so for 2018 I'm upping it to 45.)
Mostly I will be going chronologically from the early years right up to the present, but it feels right to start out with Costello's 2002 song, "45."

Music Video directed by @jessebdylan


(There's an alternate "diner" version I can't find anywhere online)
Read 2378 tweets
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.@stephen501 is another #leave voter who wishes he had the chance to vote again now the facts of what #brexit means are becoming clear. Good on you for coming forward Stephen, you are one of millions, just need others to show the same humility! #remainernow #finalsay #fbpe
Here is more from Stephen following his visit to Germany. Highlights the ideologues lies that EU will give us a good deal as they need us more than we need them.
Here is another tweet from #remainernow @stephen501 after he regretted his leave vote he wrote to his MP. Hopefully he can also help persuade other leave voters he knows to do the same now #brexitreality is hitting!
Read 11 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Publicly #DontBe #ABTV #Cheating #EVIDENCE #distracting #NGA #ShutDown #Vote #SupriseEvidence #Files #bregretter #RecordStoreDay #SoMuch #UnHackTheVote #TryTo #SESTA #BBC #Raytheon #ClimateScience #Recap #Department #Co #StoPtheWARonPublicEduCation #Candidates

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