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Andrew Walker @AndrewRangeley
, 8 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
$KKR: our investor day deck was >200 pages. The most important slide shows our belief we can grow book value from <$17/share today to >$63/share in ten years while increasing pre-tax distributable earnings by >3x (stock currently trades in low $20s)
$KKR has grown AUM rapidly (IMO market underestimates the long duration of a lot of this capital)
$KKR on their Capital Markets business (one of the things I’ve struggle with most when looking at them. Really interesting thoughts on the upside from bringing investors co-invest all the time; not sure I fully believe them but it’s interesting)
$KKR on scaling the business over time
$KKR: we’re not seeing any deterioration in underlying portfolio company performance (my note: no one can predict a recession, and they’ve obviously got a “product” to sell…. but KKR and PE in general do get a lot of data and interesting they aren’t seeing “deterioration”)
But even if we did see a recession, $KKR thinks that’s the best time for them to generate out-performance (my note; yes, some of this is probably due to PE not needing to mark to market, but recessions are probably good for them given how much dry powder they typically have)
Maybe the stupidest way of framing volatility I’ve ever read, but I do like $KKR’s views on the market overvaluing simplicity and undervaluing complexity
$KKR sees value in Japan; buying unwanted subsidiaries from conglomerates at high single digit EBITDA multiples and financing it with super cheap debt. As LIBOR rises in the U.S., likely to generate increasing fees in their credit funds because the hurdle rate is fixed.
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