Thread by @Viatcheslavsos3

@UrUnpaidPundit Tweet thread
1. I am beginning to believe that this is a dominant dynamic in a NK foreign policy vis a vis China and United States.
Is North Korea Exerting 'Asymmetric Leverage' Over China? @Diplomat_APAC thediplomat.com/2018/12/is-nor…

@UrUnpaidPundit 2. This article is on a borderline of my consequent thoughts
geopoliticalfutures.com/the-trump-doct…

@UrUnpaidPundit 3. This part
His policies may be driven by a strategy, but the need for that strategy derives from reality. When Trump took office, he likely didn’t expect that he would be visiting Kim Jong Un more than a year into his presidency. But events compelled him to.

@UrUnpaidPundit 4. Now what do we have - all the knowledge about NK and it foreign policy is very limited & has been put in a few theories, none of which can be proven correct w a 100% assurances, thus theory offered by Diplomat in 1. has at least as much credibility as any other

@UrUnpaidPundit 5. Now, let us assume that this is The One, The Theory of Everything per se
How would we build successful foreign policy based on that?
Let us do some trip in the 2015-16, even 2017 Trump thinking lane

@UrUnpaidPundit 6. In those years Trump relied on a traditional theory( sanctions, put a request to China to curb NK nuclear ambitions and frequent testing of missiles, etc) and he has ‘achieved’ limited & temporary success, which was culminated by hydrogen bomb testing in 09/17

@UrUnpaidPundit 7. Most likely much prior to that 03/09/17 Hydrogen bomb testing Trump was presented by ‘obscure’ academic/s specialized in China foreign policy and overall mentally w a ‘distant’ theory, which was looking very similar to that Diplomat theory in tweet 1.

@UrUnpaidPundit 8. As unconventional president and overall thinker, Trump was open to any idea/s from the unconventional mould, realizing that Old simply doesn’t work even in a short run
He was definitely the guy to break ‘Orthodoxies’ and ‘Groupthink’

@UrUnpaidPundit 9. Now, we need to re-examine Trump Doctrine by Friedman in tweet 2. and 3.
And examine the path of Trump diplomacy, which is basically based on 2 pillars - economic leverage and a personal friendship w a curtain leaders( Bibi, Xi, Macron, Kim and even Putin)

@UrUnpaidPundit 10. Using this mould and assuming that Diplomat theory in 1. is correct , how would pragmatist to a bone Trump deals w this issue which, judging by the theory has no resolution at least in short term
I’ll explain what I mean by “no resolution” now

@UrUnpaidPundi 11.
A. NK would never(at for forceable future) will completely give up their ☢️ ambitions
B. Xi knows and understands it and trying to deal the best he can w that reality
C. The same goes for Putin
D. Trump knows it, but has to try at least “lower the temperature”

@UrUnpaidPundit 12. So what would the world ultimate Pragmatist do?
After burning his nemesis w continuous insults, he will bear hug him w Love and Praise
Along the road he would change his SoS from Mr.Deadwood to a Mr.CiA himself ( probably the best change in a WH to date)

@UrUnpaidPundit 13. The Pragmatist would also put enormous economic squeeze on China, making a NK an intricate puzzle piece, without which the economic puzzle will not be resolved and thus instead going to Chinese all the time on NK, he forces them to come to him

@UrUnpaidPundit 14. What do we have now
A. The tests have all but stopped & though meaningless perhaps, but that development allows the world( China including) and US bread easier
B. Kim is begging for another meeting and though meaningless perhaps scares the living S...t from Xi

@UrUnpaidPundit 15.
C. China is eager to come to some kind of economic settlement w US based on events happen during ASEAN and G20 gatherings

@UrUnpaidPundit 16. I’m positive there’s also D, E, F, G to that logic
Now let us examine the screaming cretins who crying about Trump inabilities to comprehend world events
Why would they do it?
It is a complicated subject, so history will be the ultimate judge

@UrUnpaidPundit 17.
Number 1 reason is that they simply have no slightest idea about or even have a desire to broaden their shallow and narrow horizons
Number 2 reason is -they use the frame of their own ignorance to concoct the next Trump inability narrative or expand on a prev.

@UrUnpaidPundit 18. To anyone reading this thread :
Please read and try to understand articles posted in tweet 1. and 2. before asking questions and making statements and pronouncements.
Thank You
Fini.