Let's run through the "Parliament will vote to stop a no-deal Brexit" once again, because some people haven't been paying attention
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One of the recurring lines we hear from MPs is that they'll be voting (some day) against the WA, to stop it and to stop a no-deal
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these are two very different things
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the WA as agreed by May is a form of negotiated settlement, one of many theoretically-possible such agreements
a no-deal is not a settlement, but an absence of agreement
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a no-deal is not a settlement, but an absence of agreement
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Crucially, no-deal is the default outcome to Art.50 and WILL HAPPEN unless there is a decision otherwise
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This isn't scaremongering, but just how Art.50 works. It was intended to ensure that a departing member state didn't get entangled in endless negotiations, so preventing it from exercising its sovereign right to leave (as embodied in its notification so to do)
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So, that means that voting down the WA doesn't stop a no-deal, but actually makes it more likely, as Route 1 to a negotiated settlement (the one everyone worked on for 18 months) is blocked and, well, tick-tock...
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However
This isn't to say that Parliament can't avoid no-deal if it rejects the WA.
But it does have to do something more than just vote down that text
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This isn't to say that Parliament can't avoid no-deal if it rejects the WA.
But it does have to do something more than just vote down that text
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The options here are limited:
1) vote to make the gvt ask the EU for an extension of Art.50 to allow for more negotiation
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1) vote to make the gvt ask the EU for an extension of Art.50 to allow for more negotiation
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2) vote to make the gvt submit a revocation of Art.50 (thanks to Wightman)
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3) vote to have #EUref2 (and to get gvt to ask EU for an Art.50 extension, because you'll not get that done by 29/3/19)
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4) vote to bring this gvt down and have early elections, which might lead to new negotiations (again, you'll need that extension for those)
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or 5) decide that all those look unpleasant and go back to the current WA offer and vote it through
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So basically, you either have to accept the WA as is, or get more time to find a new WA, or stop the process all together
Those are the only ways to avoid a no-deal
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Those are the only ways to avoid a no-deal
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Eagle-eyed readers will notice that none of those options is likely to be that popular, either in the Commons or with the general public
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However, as long as no-deal is even less popular, those are the choices Parliament has
And it shouldn't forget it
/end
And it shouldn't forget it
/end
