A second referendum or #PeoplesVote may be the only way out of a Parliamentary #Brexit impasse. But I do not expect it to heal divisions or, worse, provide any clarity on the way forward. /1
The main issue for me comes back to the question to be asked. All the potential options (remain v no deal; remain v May deal; May deal v no deal; choice of three) seem inadequate. /2
A choice between three options or 1st/2nd preferences (as advocated by @JustineGreening) is attractive but has the basic problem that unless one option gets 50%+ then the ‘winning’ choice will be a minority one. Dissatisfaction all round. /3
Removing Remain from the ballot, on the basis that the population voted to Leave already and so this referendum is about ‘how’ has a certain logic: but Scotland/NI already expressed a majority for Remain. So how are they supposed to vote? /4
A Remain v May deal is problematic as it would look to many Leave voters like a stitch-up as only the Cabinet would campaign for it (and even then..). /5
But no responsible government should contemplate having No Deal on the ballot. As soon as it is there, it legitimises it as a viable option. That would undermine all the dire preparation notices. /6
This was one of the problems in 2016. When Leave was an option, the argument (by Cameron/Osborne) that Leaving would be harmful rang hollow. If so bad an outcome, why have you offered it? /7
We (should) know by now that referendums are unpredictable. And leaving with No Deal is not one that any government or Parliament should consider. Letting the people decide because Parliament cannot rule it out would be a dereliction of that duty. /8
But, a lack of options that people feel they cannot vote for will lead to abstentions/boycotts and a low turnout. Which returns us to square one on what the ‘will of people’ really is. /9
The only point I am certain of is that @The3Million and @BritishInEurope must be allowed to vote in a further referendum. Whilst this might be decried by some leavers as a plot to favour Remain, it seems to me to be a matter of natural justice. /END
