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Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker
, 16 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
(Thread) How are we supposed to handle the #1 player in fantasy, Todd Gurley, in the Fantasy Football Championship with him being very questionable to suit up? I have him in many leagues myself and will break down how I am going to handle this situation.
1) So before we freak out that our Fantasy Football MVP is questionable this week, before we freak out that he doesn't play until the afternoon, before we freak out about which RB behind him will "start". Let's step back and take a deep breath- this is step #1 to avoid panicking
2) That's better. Now that we are focused, our main strategy to get through this needs to be: assume he is going to sit, but set ourselves up with a back up plan. It really is that simple. We may agonize over the alternative RBs, but I never said this is an *ideal* situation
3) Of course we would have loved to have a 100% healthy Gurley heading into Week 16 in an easy matchup, in a must-win game. That simply isn't the case and there is nothing we can do about it. As always, we can only control what we can control right now.
4) Unlike the Conner situation this week, there are ton of "outs" available for Gurley owners this week. I hope that you all read my advice earlier in the week urging you to clear your bench to load up on a handful of players you *might* start this week.
5) The RBs that may be available on Gurley team's that can act as a backup plan who play 4pm EST or later are:

CJ Anderson
John Kelly
Matt Breida
Damien Williams

There are 7-8 other no-brainer RB1 & RB2's that play from 4pm EST on leaving a TON of *outs* for Gurley owners
6) This means that you should not be locking in 1pm EST low end RB2s if you have the ability to just swap in someone of similar value in the event Gurley is ruled out. There is no need to "sell low" to block yourself from playing an active Todd Freaking Gurley
7) Obviously, there are many different scenarios and I can't answer each and every one so just as a general rule of thumb. If you don't have any 4pm+ EST "outs" but can lock in a high end RB2 over him I would do it based on my risk/reward assessment of the situation
8) It's too much of a gamble to take imo. Other people may think different. I'm in a league where there are only 2 RB slots and no FLEX. I can lock in Tevin Coleman & Marlon Mack and planning to do so. I view both backs as high-end RB2.
9) Even if Gurley suits up he could be limited. I'm a big favorite so am willing to lock in a high floor and not potentially rely on a emergency play like Jalen Richard (best available for me 4pm+).
10) I have another team that has Gurley, Mixon, Damien, Gus, Ingram. I am not going to just start Gus to lock in "something" when I have plenty of outs. I am going to plan on starting Mixon/Damien and based on the Gurley news start him or Ingram.
11) with all these "outs" it makes the call easier than Conner last week. The last aspect of this situation is a bit trickier if you are relying on Rams handcuffs CJ Anderson and/or John Kelly
12) I speculated that John Kelly would be the back to own. Just yesterday, Sean McVay said that CJA would be the starter in the event Gurley sits. Despite this being a bit puzzling to me we do have to weigh his take VERY heavily since he is the coach.
13) This is why I stress that my projections evolve as the week goes. I get information later in the week that I didn't have prior, I then use that to sharpen my projections. I'm trying to predict what Sean McVay would do, not what Sean Koerner would do if he were the coach
14) So I'm saying we take him at his word and assume CJA would get 15-20 touches, mostly 1st/2nd down work and goal-line carries. John Kelly 8-15 touches & the pass-catching role. It's a very volatile situation, but as -15 road favs, both are worth considering in this spot
15) If you have Gurley and both backups (as the backup plans) I would just wait until we get news on Gurley and any possible news we get on how the Rams backfield will look. I will update my rankings accordingly as soon as we know more in order to help with everyone's sit/start
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