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Pablo Carlier @pablocarlier
, 15 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
From 10y ago…

Recessions clean up the noise in the #market and are a great opportunity to rethink assumptions, spot where the real value is, and build for that.

A storm is coming, better learn to fly! 🚀
#Apple built the most successful business of all time around a mega hit product 📱

Saturation comes now in the verge of an economic slowdown that will clear the way for the next big revolution. And someone will surely bring spot the opportunity 💡

It may just not be Apple.
#iPhone launched just before a crisis that brought down the incumbents (Nokia, Motorola, Alcatel, Ericsson) and ate the PC 💻 , started a whole App economy and changed the world 🌎

I think #AI is that next big thing, it’s already here and will be the platform to build upon.
Overinvestments in fiber during the .com bubble
perfect storm of high speed ubiquitous access to info. #Apple capitalized that storm.

Huge Data
Massive compute ☁️
Edge computing 🤖
#AI everywhere.

This changes every industry and every life
If we were looking for the next big gadget (watch, glasses, AR helmet, scooter) we were wrong.

Steam ⚙️
Electricity 🔌
PC 💻
Internet 🌐
Mobile 📱

Data enabled #AI 🧠🤖means that "smart" will reach everything and everywhere, not just the "smartphone". That's the next frontier.
VC frenzy and capital oversupply for years funding every single idea. Noise.

Downturn will clean that up and the real platform makers leveraging #ML + edge + cloud will float to the top of the crop quickly.

#AAPL has the 💰 to survive but maybe not the capabilities to lead this
Question used to be “can #AAPL become GOOG/ AMZN/ FB before they become Apple?”

They don’t need to pivot to building a phone. We are racing to become the next intelligent platform where value is aggregated (read @benthompson) and that reaches further than the phone in my pocket
Now the question is “who is better positioned to aggregate demand and supply of any service”? The foundation is there to disrupt potentially anything with intelligent, cloud powered and locally executed services.

The iPhone was a huge money maker. This is 1000x bigger.
Remember the iPod? Used to be the “huge hit product #Apple could not repeat”. Meh. Apple Watch is now bigger than that. iPhone dwarved it.

The massive profit generated by flawless execution in ONE industry for 10y cannot distract from the real opportunity: the whole world GDP.
#apple surely knows this. Siri, HomeKit, HomePod, Watch, Core ML, all baby steps.

I think the ace up their sleeve is their silicon, the “A” series and “Bionic” chips for local inference and edge computing. They seem to be killing it in ARM and everything will need one of these.
The iPhone has been a great testing field for these and will remain a super solid cash cow (China Schmina) as recession frowns competitors.

A pivot to services is happening, but it needs to be faster and Apple needs to learn to #cloud fast. AMZN, GOOG are already there.
So Apple can become the next dominant player, but only if it wins “intelligent services” with vertical integration based on hardware excellence (their core competency).

I think that’s their play. And I think Amazon and Google (maybe MSFT) are better positioned for that.
It’s only that this time the key piece of hardware is the silicon, turning Apple into Intel (but vertically integrated - IBM?) and they still seem to be lagging in delivering reliable services at scale.

TL;DR I don’t think the problem is with iPhone profits. They still dominate.
I think the problem is with the company’s vision: “build great products”.

One of those happened to become the cornerstone of a world changing revolution. And they surely milked it.

But I don’t think the next big thing is a product, but intelligent services. Others are better.
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