Thread by @ByteSizeCapital

Don't get burnt by MimbleWimble hype.

On the dawn of @grinMW's MainNet launch, we're witnessing the birth of truly fungible, trustless P2P cash.

Despite the long term promise of $GRIN, short term prospects of fair launch PoW coins are grim.

A case study of $XMR, $ZEC & $RVN.

@grinMW The chart tracks the value of $10,000 invested into each coin at the earliest date of recorded price data with a $BTC benchmark portfolio (blue).

@grinMW $XMR launched in the midst of a BTC Bear Market. The listing pump was short lived as $BTC capitulated, dragging it down to extreme lows.

@monero consistently underperformed during BTC Accumulation, until 1+ years later when a Bitcoin lead breakout sent it rallying to new highs.

@grinMW @monero $ZEC skipped the listing pump. Instead, the high-tech privacy coin experienced an 82% drawdown.

Luckily, @zcashco happened to launch on the precipice of one of the greatest Alt Rallies Of Our Time.

Despite the peculiar timing, the $10K portfolio has underperformed $BTC to date.

@grinMW @monero @zcashco The price reversal almost 5 months post-launch paints a completely different picture for the humble $10K $ZEC portfolio.

The portfolio reaches a local high of $83,000 - outperforming $BTC by a factor of 4.

@grinMW @monero @zcashco $RVN tells a similar story, experiencing a drawdown of almost 72% from launch.

Fortunately for @Ravencoin, it reclaimed its throne on the back of a @binance listing, only to give it all back & make new lows as $BTC broke critical support @ $6,000.

What a shame.

@grinMW @monero @zcashco @Ravencoin @binance Why are fair launch PoW coins, on-balance, cursed in their formative months?

1) Supply -> high tail emission; @grinMW inflation rate is 400% (!) 3 months post-MainNet launch
2) Demand -> function of the market cycle, which leads into the next point.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@grinMW @monero @zcashco @Ravencoin @binance Where did each coin launch in the BTC Market Cycle?

1) $XMR -> tail end of a Bear Market; approaching an Accumulation Range
2) $ZEC -> early stages of a Bull Market
3) $RVN -> early stages of a Bear Market.

Regardless of the stage, supply & demand dynamics played out.

@grinMW @monero @zcashco @Ravencoin @binance Where are we now in the BTC Market Cycle?

According to @MustStopMurad, BTC is currently pre-capitulation & on the brink of an extended Accumulation Range.

This is strikingly similar to market conditions during $XMR's launch back in 2014.

https://twitter.com/MustStopMurad/status/1084599920152268800

@grinMW @monero @zcashco @Ravencoin @binance @MustStopMurad What does this mean?

If @monero is anything to go by, $GRIN will - on balance of probabilities - experience a year of unimpressive performance, likely underperforming the $BTC benchmark.

@grinMW @monero @zcashco @Ravencoin @binance @MustStopMurad However, when did @monero finally begin its parabolic uptrend?

In mid-2016, almost 2 years post-launch.

The $BTC Halvening.

@grinMW @monero @zcashco @Ravencoin @binance @MustStopMurad Front-running the $BTC Halvening by 1 month led to the humble $10K @monero portfolio transforming into $5.1M at its peak, outperforming Bitcoin by a factor of 11.

@grinMW @monero @zcashco @Ravencoin @binance @MustStopMurad The next $BTC Halvening is in about 1.5 years from $GRIN's launch, circa mid-2020.

https://twitter.com/ByteSizeCapital/status/1075206151795437568

@grinMW @monero @zcashco @Ravencoin @binance @MustStopMurad Moral of the story?

Patience.

$GRIN is one of the most promising networks to launch in a long time, but don't let the hype cloud your judgement.

@grinMW @monero @zcashco @Ravencoin @binance @MustStopMurad This $GRIN analysis doesn't account for the occurrence of positive black swans in the short to medium term.

Given the overwhelming level of institutional interest, especially in SV, there is a non-zero chance of an accelerated bootstrapping phase.

@grinMW @monero @zcashco @Ravencoin @binance @MustStopMurad This means accelerated:

1) Liquidity -> @coinbase comes to mind (backing coinmine.com) & the newly announced galleon.exchange (backed by @arrington)
2) Development -> activist investors like @Layer1Official expanding $GRIN's infrastructure.

@grinMW @monero @zcashco @Ravencoin @binance @MustStopMurad @coinbase @arrington @Layer1Official On that note, the $GRIN MainNet is live!

Congratulations to the anonymous Ignotus Peverell, John Tromp, @yeastplume & the rest of the contributors on this spectacular achievement.

https://twitter.com/grinMW/status/1085196202541494273