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1/ China just re-shaped the future of the global car market. Let's take a look at the numbers rolling in now, as we get the full year picture on China's EV sales and road fuel demand. First and foremost: the sales growth of ICE vehicles has now peaked, in China w/ no way back.
2/ Sales of ICE vehicles peaked in China in 2017 at 28.102 million units. In 2017, EV sold 777 thousand units but it was not enough to blunt ICE sales. And then, last year, the EV earthquake happened: EVs sold reached 1.26 million units. ICE tanked, to 26.821 million.
3/ EV reached, therefore 4.49% of China's total vehicle market last year. Most have not fully absorbed the implications as EV now take full control of marginal growth. EV policy is now paired to both industrial and climate goals. See: EV Fireworks in China us7.campaign-archive.com/?u=0860f685d9d…
4/ With China's vehicle market failing to grow for the first time in two decades--and with EV now in control of market growth--what happened to road fuel demand last year? According to the IEA, it fell by 1.3%. Latest data shows China consumed 6.4 million barrels per day...
5/ ...of gasoline, diesel, and gasoil in 2017 as the vehicle market was peaking. Then last year, that total fell to 6.3 mbpd as the vehicle market flipped hard, in favor of EV. The prospect for future road fuel demand in China only gets worse from here. Warning shot now fired.
Addendum: IEA forecasts are out today. And as usual it's "oil demand growth despite all obstacles." IEA is forecasting 1.8% growth in China road fuel demand this year (Gasoline+Diesel/Gasoil). Take note: IEA forecast 2.33% growth for last year. But demand actually fell 1.3%.
7/ The historic trend change in China's car market from ICE to EV is of course producing alot of reactions that are straight from intuition: these range from "yeah but all the cars will be running on coal" to "how will there be enough electricity to charge them." The usual stuff.
8/ That's why Part II of Oil Fall is entirely dedicated to China's coal consumption history; it's war on air pollution that began in 2014 and the early results; the rate at which its building new wind and solar; and its hyper aggressive policy rollout putting the big hurt on ICE.
9/ Change is about the margin--how you proceed into the future from the present. Change is not about the legacy of your past mistakes--in China's case, bulking up its economy through coal over 25 years. China's change is about the pivot, making sure it doesn't grow coal further.
10/ In 2017 for example, China grew electricity generation by a fresh 362 TWh. But 95 of those new TWh came exclusively from combined wind+solar. Coal wasn't stopped yet, and provided about 200 TWh. The rest hydro, and natgas. 
11/ China also put 1.26 million fresh EV on the road last year, in 2018. Yes, aggressive policy is behind the EV tidal wave but in what ways? Edicts? Frankly, alot of the oomph in China EV policy comes via *the flowering of new EV manufacturing* that now delivers affordable EV.
12/ As the research team at @TheICCT have shown, the greatest EV growth in China is not happening in the major cities but in the tier 2, 3, and 4 cities which are less wealthy but where super-mini EV are affordable. It's the opposite of the Tesla model: putting low end first.
13/ Using an overly generous 4000 new kWh of annual demand from each EV sold last year in China (frankly, 3000 more likely, or less) the new electricity demand represented by 1.26 million new EV hitting the road is 5.04 TWh. Again, compare to *new* wind+solar gen of 2017: 95 TWh.
14/ As for heat loss and inefficiency, nothing more catastrophic than the wasted energy flying off millions of individual ICE engines. This work has long been done: you'd be better running them on coal fired electricity that concentrates the heat loss in individual power plants.
15/ Of course, that is no one's goal. As Oil Fall explains, an EV put on the road now in California not only harvests the efficiency gain vs an ICE car on the level of the engine, but systemically also, as it plugs into a more efficient grid running 20% on wind and solar
16/ China is now trying to run the same formula as California: guiding the system so the next unit of electricity demand comes from cleaner sources, and the next car to hit the road is an EV. Given China's scale, amazing how fast it's happening. gum.co/OilFall
